Camila Fontana: Cop 30 wrapped up in Belem, in northern Brazil, with a transition away from fossil fuels taking the spotlight and some delegates finding some conclusions there to have been lackluster, but not necessarily for the same reasons.
I am Camila Fontana, Deputy Bureau Chief of Argus in Brazil, and today I will be joining Lucas Parolin, Argus Brazil News Editor, who covered the event on the ground in November with other colleagues and will tell us all about his main takeaways from it. Welcome back Lucas.
Lucas Parolin: Hey Camila, thank you for having me again.
CF: So, let's get started with what seemed to be the main topic throughout the two weeks, a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
LP: Yeah, that seems like a good place to start, but to talk about that topic at Cop 30, we first need to travel to the past to COP 28, held in 2023 in Dubai. Parties there had agreed to a call to transition away from fossil fuels. The decision was considered historic, as it was the first time a COP even mentioned the words fossil fuels, although coal was mentioned previously, but it failed to gain momentum at COP29 last year, where the focus was more on climate finance.
But a few days before the start of Cop 30, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva mentioned the need to create a roadmap to overcome global dependence on fossil fuels and reverse deforestation during a Leaders Climate Summit also held in Belem. Some countries, some developed nations, but also some Latin American countries and island states took it as a strong signal to push the topic at Cop 30.
CF: Then the talk started, and the Brazilian presidency scored some early wins, is that correct?
LP: Yeah, I would say so. The first major win was getting delegates to agree on an agenda fairly quickly. It sounds trivial, but previous climate talks have been stalled due to a lack of agreement.
The Brazilian presidency received some compliments for the way you reached the agenda consensus. You see, there were eight agenda proposals, but four of them proved too controversial. Unilateral trade measures, climate finance obligations, responses to climate plans, and emissions reporting.
So, what the Brazilian presidency did was to take those items out of the main agenda and hold them under informal presidency consultations. That was key, both for conversations to run more smoothly and for there to be at least some sort of conclusion on those four topics.
CF: Talks on the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels took place in that informal agenda, right?
LP: Right, yeah, you got it perfect. Although countries were discussing the roadmap, they were never on formal negotiation tables, according to Cop 30's Chief Strategy and Alignment Officer, Tulio Andrade. And every time reporters asked the presidency about those talks, Cop 30 President Andrade Corrêa do Lago would tell us that all Brazil was doing was following what its climate plans say.
I witnessed Corrêa do Lago answer very similar questions about the roadmap for three straight days. There was sort of a humorous moment on the third, when he pulled out his cell phone and said, do you guys want me to read Brazil's climate plan? But it wasn't just the presidency that was mentioned in the roadmap.
I attended a meeting on Saturday 15th, in which a German delegate said that the talks on transition away from fossil fuels had left the rooms and entered the corridors. I also attended a panel with delegates from Nigeria, Fiji and Kazakhstan on the same date, in which all agreed that the transition had to be tangible, but not rhetorical. So, the topic definitely gained some wings in the first week.
CF: And then the second week started.
LP: Then the second week started. Well, the presidency issued a first draft text on Tuesday, November 18th, that mentioned the transition away from fossil fuels, sending out a few options for it to progress, including an option for no text at all. On the same date, a group of around 15 ministers called a press conference to announce a coalition of some 80-85 countries backing the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, and to call the initial draft text weak.
That is when individual countries started to speak more bluntly about it. The UK minister Ed Miliband, for example, said the issue was at the heart of Cop 30 and could not be swept under the carpet.
CF: Naturally, there was some opposition.
LP: Naturally, Camila. Corrêa do Lago told us then that there were still some countries who were very reluctant to accept including a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels in final texts.
CF: I am guessing he meant big producers such as Russia, India, Saudi Arabia.
LP: Well, yes, but not just that, Camila. There were many developing countries that opposed the text too. Take Nigeria, for example.
We're talking about a country that still relies heavily on fossil fuels economically. Around 80pc of its economy is based on fossil fuels. It uses about four gigawatts of fossil power generations to produce electricity.
Transition away is no easy task, but the country also recognized that it is vulnerable to oil price shocks and climate risks, talking about stranded assets and the need to protect workers and expand the non-oil sectors. Other African countries argued that any phase-out plans are against their right to develop in energy security. I can name specifically countries such as Uganda and Tanzania, which are still gas dependent.
But just to be fair, there were developing countries in Africa who openly supported the roadmap, such as Kenya and Sierra Leone.
CF: I have to stop you there and ask you about the fire.
LP: Oh, yes, the fire at Cop 30. That grabbed some headlines. On Thursday, November 20th, a fire started at around 2 p.m. local time at a pavilion in the Blue Zone, the area where negotiations take place. So, delegates were escorted out of the premises and negotiations stopped.
The venue reopened only at around 9 p.m. and any plenaries were pushed off to the following day. The cause of the fire was most likely an electrical failure, the organization told us, and no one was injured, although some 20 people had to receive medical care, mostly due to smoke inhalation.
That is scary then.
CF: But let's go back to the negotiations, because the presidency presented a new draft on Friday that had no mention of fossil fuels at all.
LP: Right again, Camila. The text that came out on Friday mentioned only a Belem mission to 1.5 °C, aimed at enabling emissions and the implementation of countries' individual climate plans. The countries that backed the roadmap were disappointed, to say the least.
EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra called the text a non-starter. Colombian Environment Minister Irene Velas-Torres, perhaps one of the loudest pro-roadmap voices, said the roadmap was not only necessary, but inevitable. Panama's Special Envoy for Climate Change Juan Carlos Gómez called the lack of mention of fossil fuels simply unacceptable and quite Orwellian.
CF: Long words, but it seems that was all to no avail.
LP: Indeed, Camila. The summit did go into overtime after there was no deal on Friday, which is common for COPs. The final text on Saturday did not mention fossil fuels at all.
Colombia had some stark words during the final plenary session, threatening to not accept a text on mitigation, which means actions to cut emissions, unless it introduced language on the transition away from fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia and Russia responded strongly. Some Latin American countries clapped back.
Let me tell you, there was some drama. That was that. The decision had already been made and could not be revoked.
The consolation prize, so to say, for the supporters of fossil fuel language, was that Brazil's presidency promised to take on the task of creating a roadmap and present it at next year's COP in Turkey. The Turkish presidency also told reporters at the summit's end that the topic would definitely show up in conversations there, too.
CF: So, there is some momentum.
LP: Most definitely. I mentioned Colombia, and it will host a conference on the phase-out of fossil fuels next year, in April. We will see if that event can keep the ball rolling.
And delegates also promised to keep talking about the transition away from fossil fuels in Bonn, another climate conference, next year.
CF: So that is that on the transition away from fossil fuels in Berlin. But what about other topics? What were the main decisions taken at Cop 30?
LP: Well, Camila, there were some, but I am going to highlight a few. First, countries agreed for the first time on a set of common indicators to measure preparedness against extreme climate events. That provides a clearer framework to track resilience, although some countries said they lacked ambition.
Second, countries agreed to call for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance, aiming to support nations that are most vulnerable to climate change. The text calls for that to take place by 2035, although some countries wanted that by 2030. On unilateral trade measures, one document called on countries to cooperate to promote a supportive and open international economic system that leads to sustainable economic growth and development.
It also says that measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.
CF: Can you translate?
LP: I can translate. Countries can adopt climate measures, even on their own, but they must be genuine environmental actions. Interesting.
CF: So, is there anything else you would like to mention?
LP: You know, there was sort of a side plot that I tracked at Cop 30 that I thought was interesting. The first draft of a text about the just transition mentioned, for the first time ever, the need to balance critical minerals, and that means copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earths, in a fair, equitable, and sustainable way. That was celebrated by many, but much like the roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, it lost momentum and eventually was not mentioned in final texts.
But still, the early mention was seen as a win. I will be watching future climate summits to see if that ever gains traction again. And then one last thing.
There were also talks on reversing deforestation. They ended up not gaining as much prominence as you would have expected from an Amazon COP. The Brazilian presidency also took it upon itself to provide a roadmap on that topic for next year.
So, we will see.
CF: So great to hear from someone who was there on the ground. Thank you, Lucas, for joining me. Thank you to our listeners.
Argus follows closely commodity market developments in Brazil and around the world. Check out more episodes of our podcast on major platforms or at argusmedia.com. See you next time.
