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Viewpoint: Brazil poised for record soy output, exports
Viewpoint: Brazil poised for record soy output, exports
Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — Brazil expects to produce and export record soybean volumes in the 2025-26 season, despite concerns over adverse weather and uncertainties regarding prices and Chinese demand. National supply company Conab estimates production will reach a record 177.1mn metric tonnes (t), although some market participants foresee output surpassing 180mn t. The 2024-25 soybean crop reached an all-time high of 171.5mn t, according to Conab. Yearly volume gains follow another season of acreage expansion, which has been a trend since the 2007-08 crop. Planted area may climb by 3.4pc this season to 48.9mn hectares (489,000km²), Conab data show. That surpasses market participants' expectations for the lowest increase in almost 20 years, with rising production costs and difficult access to credit lines for farmers. Despite these challenges, producers opted to continue increasing investments in the oilseed. Soybeans are their main revenue source, supported by firm demand from China. Brazilian exports should total an unprecedented 112mn t in 2026. That compares with the current record of 107mn t from 2025, according to Conab The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Chinese imports to rise by 4mn t to 112mn t in the 2025-26 season from the prior cycle. China has acquired at least 70pc of Brazil's soybean exports each year since 2020, according to national association of cereal exporters Anec. If China maintains a minimum share of 70pc, it would receive approximately 78.4mn t of Brazilian soybeans next year. Market participants remain confident that Brazil should post another strong year for exports, with China maintaining a large share in the Brazilian market over the upcoming years. The overall terms of the US-China deal should not pose any threat to the Brazilian market, according to market participants. China has reportedly pledged to buy 25mn t/yr from the US through 2028, yet volumes ranged from 25.9mn-32.mn t in 2020-2024, GTT and Chinese customs data show. But they fear that China may delay its return to the Brazilian market. That is because late purchases from the US could ensure Chinese buyers have full stocks once Brazil starts its export season in February. China agreed to acquire 12mn t of US soybeans before the Brazilian export season. The absent Chinese demand could lead to a price plunge once harvesting advances, as record volumes become available for the market. Brazil also has a problem with an ever-deficient storage capacity, which could prompt farmers to lower prices as much as possible to attract buyers. Record production is always a factor that pressures prices downwards. The US-China trade war managed to support Brazilian port differentials during the 2024-25 season, which accounts for the current record. But the 2022-23 crop registered record-low prices in the Paranagua paper market. Bids for April — which is usually the export season peak — were at a premium of 21¢/bushel (bu) to the CBOT in early 2023. Consecutive losses led to a 90¢/bu discount as of 31 March 2023. Brazil supply may be lower than expected Market participants worry that unfavorable weather conditions could lower production and export volumes. But the sparse occurrence of these adverse weather episodes is unlikely to be enough to pull volumes below last season's 171.5mn t. Central-western Mato Grosso state takes the spotlight in this matter. Its institute of agricultural economics Imea reported irregular rainfall throughout October. Some regions did not receive rain for 10 consecutive days at the time. Dry weather conditions turned planting unfeasible, because soil moisture is necessary for plant germination. It also hindered crop development in the initial phases. Market participants estimate that the total resown in Mato Grosso will reach approximately 2pc of the expected acreage this season, while the national average is closer to 1pc. A severe drought caused the 2023-24 season's results to fall short of initial estimates and led to a record replanting level of 8pc, according to market participants. Central-western Goias and southern Parana states also registered above-average replanting rates. These are expected to be the second and fourth largest soybean producers this crop, respectively. Goias is struggling with irregular rainfall. Water restrictions are causing resowing in its southern and eastern portions. Parana was hit by heavy rains in early November, which intensified into hailstorms, windstorms, flash floods and an extratropical cyclone. Most affected regions registered soil erosion and complete losses. Rio Grande do Sul state — the second-largest soybean producer — is also facing issues with hydric stress. Some market participants are already saying that there will be cuts in the production outlook. Areas sown after 15 November exhibit uneven growing patterns due to water restriction, according to regional rural agency Emater-RS. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
Policy is key for Cop 30 sustainable fuels pledge
London, 23 December (Argus) — A UN Cop 30 climate summit pledge, known as "Belem 4x", to quadruple "sustainable fuels" use over 2024-35 has so far drawn 27 signatories, including major biofuels producers and consumers. But such a substantial increase could face constraints, including feedstock and land availability, and will depend on supportive legislation. The signatories pledged at Cop 30 to "expand sustainable fuels use globally by at least four times by 2035 from 2024 levels", including by "adopting ambitious national policies". Sustainable fuels, in the context of the pledge, refers to liquid biofuels, biogases, "low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels", according to energy watchdog the IEA. The pledge follows an IEA report in October developed for the Cop 30 presidency, which found that a fourfold increase "is ambitious yet achievable". Under the IEA scenario, liquid and gaseous biofuels would meet around two-thirds of sustainable fuel demand in 2030, while hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels would "expand rapidly" after 2030. Cop 30 host Brazil proposed the pledge in September , based on the IEA's preliminary findings, and the commitment was launched with India, Italy and Japan at the pre-Cop event in Brasilia, Brazil in October. The pledge now has 27 signatories from Latin and North America, Asia, Africa and Europe, encompassing sustainable fuels producers and consumers. Canada, Indonesia, Mexico and the Netherlands are among the signatories. The pledge "sends an important political signal: scaling up sustainable fuels is not only necessary for climate goals, but feasible", the European Waste-based and Advanced Biofuels Association (Ewaba) told Argus . "Europe's biodiesel sector shows how sustainable biofuels can strengthen energy security, reduce import dependence and deliver immediate climate benefits using existing vehicles and fuel infrastructure," Ewaba added. Rising demand Sustainable fuels are typically used in transport sectors, which are among the highest-emitting, particularly in advanced economies. Although transport electrification is expanding, it is typically not moving fast enough to hit climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement, while shipping and aviation will require multiple decarbonisation solutions. Hydrogen and related fuels are also likely to see uptake from industry and power generation. Global demand for sustainable fuels doubled over 2010-24, and is already expected to grow this decade, boosted by policies designed to drive emissions reductions and support energy security. Conversely, the removal of tax credits for electric vehicles in the US, and recent weakening of the EU target for zero-emission cars are also likely to support increased biofuels consumption. The full implementation of existing and announced policies and targets, "plus the removal of market barriers, could lead to a near-doubling of sustainable fuel use in just six years", the IEA said. This could attract investment for new production capacity, it added. It also recommended prioritising infrastructure and supply chain development, as well as innovation funds for new technologies. The IEA found that sustainable fuels could cover 10pc of road transport demand, 15pc of aviation demand and 35pc of shipping fuel demand by 2035 — although it would "vary widely" by region. In an accelerated case, the IEA found that liquid biofuels could provide 8.07EJ in energy in 2030, up by 62pc from 2024 levels. The picture shifts by 2035 in the scenario, with biogas supply more than doubling and low-emissions hydrogen more than quadrupling, both from 2030. Land-use concerns But a near-term focus on increased biofuels production sparked concerns from several organisations about feedstock availability and the land conversion implications. "Such a massive uptake in biofuels could have calamitous consequences for the environment and climate, depending on how this pledge is interpreted," European non-governmental organisation (NGO) Transport & Environment (T&E) said. It flagged land cleared for crops such as palm oil, soy, sugarcane and corn. T&E projections show that "under current growth trends and policies, 90pc of biofuels will still be reliant on food and feed crops by 2030." The IEA noted "limited" expansion opportunities for biofuels from waste oils and fats, while it recommended improving crop yields for other feedstocks. But climate change is likely to hamper crop output. The UN Environment Programme warned recently that under a ‘business as usual' pathway, land degradation "is expected to continue at current rates, with the world losing fertile and productive land the size of Ethiopia or Colombia annually". Cop pledges often aim to drive an existing trend faster, and this is typically evident in the signatories — a coalition of the willing. Brazil has vast ethanol production capacity and strong domestic consumption mandates, like India, while another signatory, Chile, is forging ahead with renewable hydrogen production. The pledges, like all climate action, rely on strong policy, but commitment from key countries is more likely to achieve results. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: EU crop biodiesel demand set to rise in 2026
Viewpoint: EU crop biodiesel demand set to rise in 2026
London, 23 December (Argus) — European crop-based biodiesel use is likely to rise in 2026 as changes to the EU's recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) make waste-based biofuels less attractive for greenhouse gas (GHG) compliance. But looming feedstock caps could limit growth. RED III will end the practice of counting certain waste feedstocks twice towards compliance targets in major EU economies. Fuel suppliers may turn to cheaper crop-based biodiesel to meet their goals. Until now, member states could count biofuels from waste feedstocks listed in the directive's Annex IX — Part A (9A) and Part B (9B) — twice towards transport renewable energy targets. These include biodiesel such as used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) and Advanced Fame 0, made from feedstocks in 9B and 9A, respectively. Germany and the Netherlands plan to remove double counting in 2026 as they implement RED III. In Germany, the change applies only to biofuels produced from 9A feedstocks. But ending double counting means suppliers must deliver higher physical volumes of renewable fuel, making cheaper crop-based biodiesel more attractive. Overall renewable fuel requirements are rising under RED III, with the headline transport mandate more than doubling on an energy basis to 29pc from 14pc by 2030, alongside a 14.5pc GHG reduction target. In countries such as France, Spain and Belgium that still allow double counting, suppliers will continue to favour waste-based biofuels. Feedstock caps RED III also brings changes to caps on certain biofuel feedstocks. Germany is expected to slightly increase its cap on 9B fuels but keep an overall limit of 1.7pc. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), a drop-in biofuel also known as renewable diesel, is expected to meet most of the country's needs under the cap. As physical blending requirements rise because Germany will stop double counting 9A biofuels, blenders will need more HVO. HVO's chemical properties allow blending beyond the 7pc limit for methyl ester biodiesel in diesel. Greater use of UCO-based HVO will leave less room for Ucome because of the domestic cap. Market participants will likely look to high-GHG savings crop-based biodiesel and advanced biodiesel — produced from 9A feedstocks still uncapped — to meet targets. Advanced biodiesel demand could also outpace crop-based buying if further caps on crop-based fuels are introduced. But Argus Consulting forecasts about 1bn litres of additional rapeseed methyl ester (RME) demand next year as a result of these legislative changes. In the Netherlands, an expansion of the renewable fuels mandate from road fuels to include maritime and inland waterways will bring new feedstock restrictions. Sellers will be watching renewable fuel certificate prices in Germany and the Netherlands, which will be based on GHG savings under RED III. Many participants have already called for higher biodiesel blending capacity to ease pressure on the HVO market. Italy has drafted legislative changes to allow widespread use of B10 diesel at service stations, requiring distributors to supply B7 at 30pc of sites as a protectionist grade. By Christian Hotten Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Indonesia allocates 2026 biodiesel blend volumes
Indonesia allocates 2026 biodiesel blend volumes
Singapore, 23 December (Argus) — Indonesia has allocated 15.6mn kilolitres to domestic biodiesel producers for its 2026 biodiesel-fossil diesel blending programme, the ministry of energy and mineral resources (ESDM) announced on 22 December. Total allocated biodiesel blend volumes will remain unchanged in 2026, with 7.45mn kl allocated to public service obligation (PSO) and 8.19mn kl to non-PSO (NPSO) firms. The ESDM this year allocated 7.6mn kl and 8mn kl to PSO and NPSO firms respectively under the 40pc biodiesel blend mandate. Indonesia reshuffled blend volumes earlier in December to shift an allocated 480,000 kl from PSO to NPSO fuel suppliers. But volume allocations will increase if Indonesia moves to a 50pc biodiesel blend mandate in the second half of 2026 . Fuel suppliers under the PSO receive subsidies from the oil plantation fund management agency (BPDP) to fund the difference between palm oil-based biodiesel and the indexed price of diesel, while NPSO fuel suppliers do not. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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