Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
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Rhine hits record lows, halts shipping south of Mainz
Rhine hits record lows, halts shipping south of Mainz
Hamburg, 13 August (Argus) — Rhine River water levels have again dropped to record lows, and barge operators said most traffic is now halted south of Mainz. Navigation is also increasingly restricted further north, as water levels continue to fall. Freight rates from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to Rhine destinations have hit record highs. The water gauge at Kaub, the Rhine's key bottleneck, was at 11cm on 13 August. The Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration forecasts a drop to 6cm by the weekend, another all-time low. At this level, river transport from ARA to the Upper Rhine and Main River is near-impossible. Only a few specialised barges can pass through Kaub under extremely challenging conditions, shipowners said. Storage sites along the Main, including Frankfurt, Hanau and Aschaffenburg, and depots on the Upper Rhine in Karlsruhe, Mannheim, Kehl and Basel, Switzerland, are effectively cut off from ARA. Shipping south of Kaub, to Basel, is barely feasible because of shallow water at the Maxau gauge south of Karlsruhe. Shipowners said quoted spot freight rates for ARA-Karlsruhe cargoes are largely theoretical, as volumes are too low to ascertain a reliable market price. The Argus rate for ARA-Karlsruhe route is a record €215/t, but urgent cargoes that still move to the Upper Rhine on specialised vessels are commanding even higher lump-sum rates. Most transport is confined to the Lower Rhine. Duisburg, Dortmund and Neuss remain accessible from ARA, shipowners said. Of the Cologne terminals — Köln-Molenkopf, Köln-Niehl, Godorf and Wesseling — only the former can still theoretically be served by conventional barges. The others are already too shallow for regular operations. Water levels are also dropping on the Lower Rhine. On 13 August, the Duisburg gauge was 136cm, another historic low. Barges can reach Duisburg from ARA at only about 15pc of capacity, according to shipowners. If Duisburg falls below 130cm, inland shipping could be halted on parts of the Lower Rhine. Forecasts show little short-term relief. While local thunderstorms are expected, dry soils mean these may not raise river levels significantly. A sustained recovery would need widespread, prolonged rainfall across the basin. By Johannes Guhlke and Marc Hauschild Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hormuz traffic low despite US claims of control
Hormuz traffic low despite US claims of control
New York, 12 August (Argus) — Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, weighing on global oil demand despite US president Donald Trump's recent claims of the US' total control over the narrow waterway. Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz stood at 16 vessels total on 11 August, split between 11 inbound and five outbound transits, data from maritime security firm Windward show. There were six total transits — including three transits into the Mideast Gulf and three transits out — that took place on the southern US-supported transit lane, including a Sinokor-controlled very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2mn bl of Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam, Windward data show. "The USA has total control over the strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" Trump posted on social media on 12 August. "Our naval blockade is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL' and there is nothing Iran can do about it." Trump's claim of the US' total control over the strait of Hormuz came the same day that the International Energy Agency (IEA) described an agreement enabling the reopening of the strait of Hormuz as "still elusive" in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR). It also lowered its global oil demand forecast "as the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz disrupts international supply chains and curtails product availability". The latest remarks by Trump come as the US and Iran appear to be moving further away from the potential for diplomatic resolution to reopen the strait of Hormuz, based on recent escalations in rhetoric from both countries. Iran continues to heighten its demands for the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, linking it to the end of the US' blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a region-wide ceasefire that includes Lebanon and Gaza. Meanwhile, Trump in an 11 August post on social media floated the idea that Iran "should be responsible for the damages and death caused to the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza!" Wright or wrong? US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on 11 August that thanks to the US and its Gulf allies the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz is up to almost 9mn b/d, a figure much higher than available information. Data from vessel tracking firm Vortexa places the weekly average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz between 31 July and 7 August at 3.34mn b/d, with the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait as the leading exporters. It is unclear whether the vessels transited on the US-supported southern lane or the northern Iranian-controlled transit lane. Iran had previously exempted its ally Iraq from paying tolls to transit the strait in June. The IEA confirmed in its latest OMR that "following significant gains in May and June, crude and condensate flow through Hormuz (…) collapsed in July." Wright doubled down on his claims on 12 August stating that "many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway". The US Central Command (Centcom) has repeatedly claimed that US-assisted transits through the strait of Hormuz have been averaging around 20 vessels a day, even on days where vessel tracking and satellite information detected only 10 vessels making it through the waterway. Centcom has declined to respond to multiple requests for additional details on the transits from Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
EIA raises renewable diesel output view
Houston, 11 August (Argus) — The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its projections for renewable diesel production and net exports while trimming domestic demand expectations. EIA raised its forecast for renewable diesel production in 2026 to 241,000 b/d, the agency said Tuesday in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook , up by 5,000 b/d from July's forecast. The production outlook for next year was unchanged at 294,000 b/d. The outlook for domestic renewable diesel demand this year was trimmed by 9,000 b/d to 208,000 b/d, while the 2027 forecast was reduced by 4,000 b/d to 291,000 b/d. EIA increased its expectation for net renewable diesel exports this year to 30,000 b/d, up by 13,000 b/d from July's projection and equal to the level recorded in 2025. Next year, renewable diesel imports and exports are expected to be balanced, compared with 5,000 b/d in net imports projected last month. US biodiesel domestic demand is expected to average 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 115,000 b/d in 2027. The 2026 forecast was cut by 1,000 b/d from EIA's July outlook, while the 2027 outlook was unchanged. Biodiesel output is expected to reach 101,000 b/d in 2026 and 109,000 b/d in 2027, both unchanged from the previous report. Biodiesel imports and exports in 2026 are also expected to be balanced, a decrease of 1,000 b/d in net imports from last month's projection. The agency expects 6,000 b/d of net biodiesel imports in 2027, unchanged from the previous report. EIA's forecast for US production and consumption of "other biofuels" — including sustainable aviation fuel — were unchanged from last month's outlook at 42,000 b/d this year and 53,000 b/d next year. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecast for US soybean oil use for biofuels in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, holding at 8.07mn metric tonnes for the 2026–27 marketing year. US soybean crush margins have remained volatile since the start of July, peaking at $3.268/bushel (bu) on 22 July before soybean oil futures prices dove lower. Crush margins were last calculated at $2.745/bu on 10 August. Current-year D4 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits were last assessed at 221.5¢/lb on 10 August, down substantially from an all-time high of 255.875¢/RIN reached on 7 July, lowering production margins for US biofuel producers. The US requires refiners to blend various types of biofuels each year or cover their obligations by purchasing RIN credits from others that do. By Thompson Corpus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.44pc in July
Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.44pc in July
Sao Paulo, 11 August (Argus) — Brazil's inflation slowed to an annual 4.44pc in July, with lower housing costs helping to offset higher electricity bills. The consumer price index IPCA decelerated from 4.64pc in June and 4.72pc in May, national statistics agency IBGE said on Tuesday. The latest decline puts inflation within the central bank's target range of 1.50-4.50pc. Food and beverage costs, which weigh heavily on the index, contributed the most to the monthly deceleration in the IPCA, decelerating to an annual 3.4pc in July from 3.82pc in June. Lower prices for coffee, fruits and vegetables largely drove the declines, IBGE said. Housing costs was the largest monthly contributors to the gain in the index in July, with its inflation accelerating to an annual 5.93pc from 5.85pc a month earlier, mostly thanks to electricity bills and tax readjustments for power supply in some southern states. Transport costs slowed to an annual 3.64pc in July from 3.95pc in June. Lower prices for ethanol, diesel, gasoline and compressed natural gas weighed on motor fuel costs, despite an increase in airfares The annual gain for July was down from 5.23pc in July 2025 . The central bank expects inflation to end 2026 at 5.03pc, above its 1.5-4.5pc expected range. It also expects inflation at 4.22pc for 2027 and 3.8pc for 2028. Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14pc in its latest meeting , held last month, a fourth such quarter point cut since March after holding it at 15pc since mid-2025 to stem inflation. By Mariana Funchal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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