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Opec+ 7 agrees to 188,000 b/d July target hike
Opec+ 7 agrees to 188,000 b/d July target hike
Dubai, 7 June (Argus) — The seven core Opec+ members agreed on Sunday to another modest 188,000 b/d increase in their collective production target for July, despite the conflict in the Middle East continuing to disrupt supplies from several of the group's biggest producers. The increase mirrors that which the group ꟷ Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman ꟷ agreed to for June at its last meeting on 3 May. But it falls short of the 206,000 b/d increases from the two previous months ꟷ reflecting the UAE's late-April decision to exit both the Opec and Opec+ alliances effective 1 May. The increases are part of a wider process that began in April last year to unwind 1.65mn b/d of production cuts, but they will not result in any real output increases until the strait of Hormuz reopens. The group has met and agreed to raise its production target four times since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February, which prompted Tehran to begin severely disrupting shipping through the strait. This de-facto closure of the key waterway has forced several Mideast Gulf countries — including three of the seven in this group — to significantly scale back production since they rely on the strait for their energy exports. Argus estimates that crude production from these three countries was close to 8.5mn b/d below their cumulative target for May. Overall Opec+ output in May was down 9.6mn b/d from the level before the war began. With no obvious end in sight to the conflict, or a re-opening of the strait, production from the Mideast Gulf looks almost certain to remain constrained in the short-term. As in previous months, the group reiterated that it retains "full flexibility to increase, pause or even reverse" previously implemented adjustments to their production targets. The group of seven is scheduled to meet next on 5 July. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Opec+ 7 to further relax output targets
Opec+ 7 to further relax output targets
London, 5 June (Argus) — Seven core Opec+ members are expected to further relax their production targets for July when they meet on 7 June, although this will not lead to any real output increases until the strait of Hormuz reopens. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman still have about 564,000 b/d of output left to unwind from a 1.65mn b/d set of cuts agreed in April 2023. The UAE, which left Opec and Opec+ on 1 May, was also a part of those cuts. In their previous meeting , the seven members agreed to increase their collective targets by 188,000 b/d for June. Should they continue to increase their targets at this rate, the group will finish unwinding their last remaining set of voluntary cuts by September. The decisions to increase production targets remain something of a theoretical exercise for Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, which have had to shut in huge swathes of their output due to the US-Iran war and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. A delegate source says the unwinding of the cuts should be seen as a way of preparing the ground for the three members to raise production once the strait reopens. Saudi Arabia would be able to raise its production to 10.478mn b/d from 6.57mn b/d in May once the cuts are fully unwound. Iraq would be able to increase to 4.431mn b/d from 1.55mn b/d in May, while Kuwait would be allowed to boost production to 2.676mn b/d from 580,000 b/d. The source says there is a shared understanding within the group that no member will operate at full capacity or exceed targets to make up for lost output during the US-Iran war. Still, any output increases from Mideast Gulf members is contingent on being able to freely export their crude through the strait, which has remained effectively shut for more than three months. US president Donald Trump for weeks has described a US-Iran deal to end the war as practically finalised, although an actual agreement has proven elusive. There are also questions about how quickly members will be able to restore production and whether any lasting damage will result from the shutdowns. Baseline reset The wider Opec+ alliance is also pushing full steam ahead with a plan to update production baselines for each member that will set new output targets from 2027, a source says. The process to assess members' maximum sustainable production capacity is being carried out by US consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton. It began in January and is set to conclude in September, allowing three months to fine-tune targets before implementation. But as things stand, Opec+ output remains massively curtailed. Production by all members of the alliance rose by 50,000 b/d on the month to 29.53mn b/d in May, according to Argus estimates (see table). This represents a 9.6mn b/d drop on production before the start of the Iran war on 28 February. Most of this fall has been driven by Mideast Gulf members of the alliance Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iran, which have collectively seen their output fall by more than 10mn b/d from pre-war levels. The biggest rise on the month in May came from Saudi Arabia, which boosted output by 250,000 b/d as it burnt more oil for power generation. Iraq increased production by about 150,000 b/d, also partly to meet increased power generation demand. Iran saw the sharpest drop last month as the US blockade of the country's ports began to bite. Iran's output fell by 300,000 b/d to 2.65mn b/d, with further drops likely as the country's storage sites fill up. Russia's production remained curtailed at 9mn b/d, under pressure from continuing attacks on its oil infrastructure by Ukraine. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Opec+ crude production mn b/d May Apr* Target† ± target Opec 8 11.73 11.38 20.17 -8.44 Non-Opec 9 12.73 12.75 13.53 -0.80 Opec+ 17 24.46 24.13 33.70 -9.24 Total Opec+ 29.53 29.48 na na *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Opec wellhead production mn b/d May Apr Target† ± target Saudi Arabia 6.57 6.32 10.23 -3.66 Iraq 1.55 1.40 4.33 -2.78 Kuwait 0.58 0.56 2.61 -2.03 Algeria 0.98 1.00 0.98 -0.00 Nigeria 1.50 1.57 1.50 +0.00 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.28 0.30 0.28 +0.00 Gabon 0.22 0.19 0.18 +0.04 Equatorial Guinea 0.05 0.04 0.07 -0.02 Opec 8 11.73 11.38 20.17 -8.44 Iran 2.65 2.95 na na Libya 1.32 1.35 na na Venezuela 1.10 1.05 na na Total Opec 11^ 16.80 16.73 na na †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Note: UAE exited Opec on 1 May Non-Opec crude production mn b/d May Apr* Target† ± target Russia 9.00 9.00 9.70 -0.70 Oman 0.83 0.92 0.82 +0.01 Azerbaijan 0.45 0.45 0.55 -0.10 Kazakhstan 1.86 1.78 1.59 +0.27 Malaysia 0.34 0.35 0.40 -0.06 Bahrain 0.03 0.03 0.20 -0.17 Brunei 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 Sudan 0.01 0.01 0.06 -0.05 South Sudan 0.12 0.12 0.12 -0.00 Total non-Opec 12.73 12.75 13.53 -0.80 *revised †includes extra cuts agreed in Apr 23 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
African Energy Bank schedules September start
African Energy Bank schedules September start
Lagos, 5 June (Argus) — The African Energy Bank (AEB) is scheduled to launch in September, promoter African Petroleum Producers' Organisation (Appo) has said. Appo secretary general Farid Ghezali acknowledged "several postponements" but said the new deadline is "to make the bank operational in September 2026 in view of the incompressible deadlines from an administrative point of view". A planned April start was pushed back to this month before Appo members were again mobilised around a third-quarter deadline. Ghezali called on Appo members to redeem their pledges towards the $500mn start-up capital before the end of June. A source told Argus in May that 91pc of this had been raised and that Nigeria's state-owned NNPC and local content regulator NCDMB would make up the balance. The latter, which sits on Appo's board, said earlier this week that Nigeria remains committed to AEB's "formal commencement of operations", but provided no specifics. Ghezali said AEB aims to reverse the situation that sees Africa importing more than 60pc of its oil products consumption and producing only 12pc of global upstream liquids while being home to many of the world's largest national oil and gas reserves. NCDMB said AEB will achieve its aim by "mobilising private-sector funds for energy projects across the continent". Ghezali said the bank will target the financing of 20–30 LNG, petroleum products pipeline, terminals and refining projects by 2030. Projects that monetise natural gas as a transition fuel will take up 40pc of AEB's loan book and the priority will be given to projects that contribute towards the creation of "500,000–1mn direct and indirect jobs in the energy value chain". But even with the September start, Ghezali said AEB loan-making will only "open at the end of 2026". AEB will be based in Abuja, Nigeria. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US-China 'board of trade' development begins
US-China 'board of trade' development begins
Washington, 3 June (Argus) — US trade officials have started seeking public comments on how to organize a joint US-China panel to promote trade between the countries by eliminating or lowering tariffs. Following the meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing last month the two countries said they would establish a 'board of trade' to identify $30bn worth of US products for Chinese companies to buy, matched by an equivalent amount of Chinese imports into the US. Washington and Beijing would then reduce or drop tariffs on those products. The US Trade Representative's office (USTR) on Monday kicked off a public consultation process on how the US-China board of trade should function and what categories of products should qualify for tariff reductions. The USTR filing does not mention a specific monetary target. The filing is asking US exporters to identify what products they would be able to sell if Beijing reduces current tariffs on those products to pre-2025 levels. This would include US crude and LNG, as Beijing imposed a 20pc surcharge on US crude last year, on top of an existing 2.5pc tariff, making US crude exports to China uneconomical. The White House claimed after the Trump-Xi meeting that Beijing has expressed interest in resuming purchases of US crude, but Chinese buyers have yet to return to the US market. USTR is asking for public comments on the board of trade until 10 July, with responses to those comments expected by 27 July. Xi and Trump also agreed to establish a separate government panel to promote bilateral investment — an idea pitched by Beijing after the US in recent years rolled out prohibitions on Chinese investment in industries considered sensitive from the national security perspective. Despite the promise to establish a US-China board of investment, "the US position toward Chinese investment has not materially changed," USTR head Jamieson Greer said last week at a discussion hosted by Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations. "If you have a US company investing in China and China says, you know, 'here's an issue with it or there's an obstacle', we can talk to the Chinese about it" through the new board of investment, Greer said. The US until 20 February had assessed a 20pc punitive tariff on all imported goods from China, on top of pre-2025 duties. The Supreme Court struck down those tariffs, and the Trump administration has imposed a 10pc tariff on all US imports through 24 July. Imports from China will be subject to a general 12.5pc tariff surcharge once the Trump administration completes legal steps to reverse-engineer the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, USTR said in a separate filing on Monday. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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