Biofuels and feedstocks
Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
The Argus biofuels solution provides in-depth pricing and market analysis across the entire global renewable fuel supply chain, from original feedstock to finished fuel, with prices and key insights into regional biodiesel, ethanol and feedstock markets.
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Court challenge hangs over CARB market updates
Court challenge hangs over CARB market updates
Houston, 13 July (Argus) — California regulators want to implement new cap-and-invest rules on 1 September, but a lawsuit by an environmental justice group may complicate the rollout. The group Communities for a Better Environment (CBE) filed a lawsuit on 1 July that alleges that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) violated the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) by adopting the carbon market amendments based on an inadequate environmental impact assessment, particularly regarding a proposed industrial decarbonization incentive. The timeline for a legal resolution is uncertain. CBE filed a similar lawsuit in 2024 against the agency's Low Carbon Fuel Standard amendments that is still moving through the courts. Tick tock The wild card in the short term is how fast the courts would decide on CBE's request to stop CARB from implementing its regulations while the case moves forward, said Matthew Dobbins, a partner at law firm Vinson & Elkins and a member of its environment and natural resources team in Houston. "I don't know that the environmental group here would necessarily be able to show imminent and irreparable harm per se to get an injunction," Dobbins said. A pause in CARB's ability to implement the program changes would have ripple effects inside and outside California. Industrial participants covered by the program would get 137mn metric tonnes (t) of free carbon allowances over 2027-30 under the new regulations, but only 106mn t under the current regulations if an injunction is granted. Recipients include refiners, chemical manufacturers, cement producers and hydrogen makers. Additionally, a delay would prevent the introduction of a free allowance allocation benchmark for biofuel production in the state. It also would stall the development of CARB's new manufacturing decarbonization incentive. While the near-term effect on allowance supply would be limited, it could slow efforts to encourage carbon capture and storage projects tied to California's 2045 net-zero goal. The Western Climate Initiative, a joint carbon market between California and Quebec, is aiming for Washington state to join as soon as next year . But Washington needs California to complete its rulemaking, so it can adopt its own changes to ensure compatible programs. "At least in terms of the trial court we can get a sense fairly quickly which way the judge is going to lean," said Daniel Farber, the faculty director at the University of California, Berkeley Center for Law, Energy & the Environment. Splitting hairs The longer the case goes on without an injunction, the more immaterial CBE's arguments may become. "They sort of risk being in a situation where the lawsuit becomes increasingly irrelevant," Farber said, adding that a lengthy legal process could give CARB time to address any deficiencies while moving ahead with the program. This is not the first time California's cap-and-invest program has been drawn into a CEQA case. A San Francisco Superior Court judge in March 2011 directed CARB to halt implementation of the program until the agency addressed CEQA-related deficiencies with its climate change scoping plan. CARB appealed that ruling, which a state court of appeal overturned in 2012. But it is rare that a CEQA case brought before the court has no merit, according to Nico van Aelstyn, a partner in law firm Sheppard's real estate, energy, land-use and environmental practice. CBE could make a "fair argument" that by delivering the final environmental impact assessment (EIA) to board members on 26 May, there was insufficient time for consideration ahead of the vote days later, van Aelstyn said. But that does not mean CBE would ultimately prevail. Courts have historically given CARB deference on technical emissions matters. If a court requires CARB to redo its assessment, it could be at least six months before the agency is in a position to adopt new changes on a "better" final EIA, van Aelstyn said. CARB must first respond to CBE's petition before the judge can rule on a request to block implementation. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German HVO demand held back by low Rhine water levels
German HVO demand held back by low Rhine water levels
London, 13 July (Argus) — Low water levels on the Rhine have recently weighed on northwest European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) prices by curbing demand from German buyers, but market participants expect the weakness to be temporary as stronger mandate-driven consumption and tighter global supply fundamentals are likely to support prices later this year. The Argus used cooking oil (UCO)-based HVO Class II and palm oil mill effluent (Pome)-based HVO Class IV outright prices have averaged around $2,765/t and $2,990/t during June and July so far, down from around $2,945/t and $3,290/t during April and May. The decline has been driven largely by weaker demand from Germany, one of Europe's largest biofuel consumers. The water level at Kaub — a critical chokepoint on the Rhine — is forecast to fall to 50cm today, the lowest since August 2022. The resulting logistical disruptions have encouraged some German buyers to meet their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligations through buying GHG quota compliance from other companies, rather than buying physical HVO. Companies generate the compliance by placing eligible renewable fuels that deliver greenhouse gas reductions compared with fossil fuels on the market. In Germany, when converted to the same unit as the GHG quota compliance certificates, HVO classes II and IV ended the week at €343.97/t CO2e and €451.90/t CO2e, according to Argus calculations ( see chart ). The 2026 Advanced and Other GHG quota were at €372.50/t CO2e and €480/t CO2e because of strong buying from obligated companies. Comparing in the same unit, called the cost per ticket (CPT), shows whether physical compliance or buying GHG quota is cheaper at any given time. Renewed volatility in gasoil prices, brought on by the collapse of the fragile ceasefire that followed the signing of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, has also weighed on HVO buying interest. Traders said the uncertainty has encouraged many market participants, particularly smaller buyers, to delay purchases and adopt a wait-and-see approach. But market participants expect prices to strengthen once Rhine water levels rise, with HVO-specific drivers also pointing to a tighter supply-demand balance in the months ahead. The case for HVO RED III compliance targets are set at record levels across many European demand centres this year. In Germany alone, Argus Analytics estimates HVO demand at around 2.1mn t in 2026, up from around 800,000t in 2025, after Germany's RED III implementation entered into law in early June. The new legislation abolished the practice of double counting for advanced feedstocks listed in part A of RED's Annex IX, which is expected to significantly boost HVO demand this year. Germany will require higher absolute volumes of renewable fuels to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quotas, supporting demand for drop-in fuels such as HVO. Increased demand from the Netherlands could also lend support to the market, participants said. Dutch renewable fuel tickets have traded at a discount to physical HVO for most of 2026, partly because ticket generation has increased as a larger volume of renewable transport credits has been created from electric vehicles (EVs) and biomethane than in previous years. In the Netherlands, on an equivalent basis as the tickets, HVO classes II and IV ended at 40.52c/kg CO2e and 51.69c/kg CO2e on 10 July, respectively, compared with 37.62c/kg CO2e and 48.50c/kg CO2e for the equivalent tickets, LRE-B and LRE-G. On the HVO supply side, the finalisation of the new US renewable volume obligation in April has created a domestic requirement that is expected to outpace US HVO production. This has effectively eliminated the exportable surplus that previously flowed to Europe, which made the US one of the region's biggest HVO importers. The US had an exportable surplus into Europe of around 750,000t in 2025, according to Argus Analytics. Europe will have to increasingly rely on HVO supply from Singapore, China, Malaysia and Canada, which could also flow in part to the US. US output has also faced operational challenges. A reported explosion at PBF's facility in May, combined with hydrocracker maintenance at Phillips 66's Rodeo refinery has reduced available supply. A third US facility may undergo a turnaround this summer. In Europe and Asia, expected maintenance at several production facilities this summer — including Ecoceres and Neste — is expected to constrain supply in the near term, lending further support to prices. Expectations of firmer prices are reflected in the Class II forward curve. The HVO Class II Argus -settled Ice contract as a differential to gasoil has remained in contango since 6 July and peaks in October. This structure is partly driven by the backwardation in the gasoil curve, reflecting expectations that tensions between the US and Iran will ease and HVO premiums to gasoil adjust higher as a result. But the outright HVO curve is also slightly in contango, with prices peaking in September. This suggests that HVO-specific fundamentals are likewise pointing to higher outright prices in the near term. By Evelina Lungu HVO fob ARA outright $/t Cost difference: Blending vs ticket purchase (Germany) €/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU waste oils imports fell in April 2026
EU waste oils imports fell in April 2026
Amsterdam, 10 July (Argus) — Total EU imports of waste oils from outside the bloc under HS code 151800 — a category that mainly includes used cooking oil (UCO), but also other waste oils and residues — reached 231,300t in April. Volumes fell by 22pc from March but were up by 16pc year on year, according to EU customs data accessed via Global Trade Tracker (GTT). Higher transportation costs following the escalation of the US-Iran conflict probably weighed on EU imports in April. Concerns over disruption to traffic through the strait of Hormuz — a key artery for global crude and oil product exports — pushed up energy prices and freight rates , increasing the cost of shipping UCO to Europe and potentially reducing import volumes on the month. China remained the EU's largest supplier in April, shipping 94,800t, down by 14pc from March but still 17pc higher on year to date terms. Increased US demand, supported by record 2026-27 domestic blending mandates and surging prices, may have diverted some Chinese waste oil volumes away from Europe, contributing to the monthly decline in shipments. Malaysia remained the second largest supplier, delivering 40,000t in April, down by 29pc on the month. Malaysia's overall exports year to date increased by 55pc, partly offsetting restricted Indonesian exports . The UK retained its position as the third-largest exporter, with exports rising by 1pc on the month to 24,900t. The Netherlands remained the dominant EU entry point, importing 141,300t in April, which was down by 20pc on the previous month. It accounted for 61pc of total EU imports. Spain remained the second-largest importer at 63,600t, up by 5pc from March, taking 28pc of total EU imports. Sweden was again third, importing 5,700t in April, down by 7pc on the month, accounting for 2pc of total EU imports. Saudi Arabia was the fourth largest supplier, with March-April 2026 volumes totalling 20,500t, slightly lower than the same period a year prior. By Kawtar Rettab and Anna Prokhorova EU-27 used cooking oil imports from outside EU t Apr 26 ± Apr/Mar 26 ±% Apr/Mar 26 ± Apr 26/25 ±% Apr 26/25 Jan-Apr 26 ± Jan-Apr 26 ±% Jan-Apr 26 Imports by origin China 94,844 -15,665 -14% 49,450 109% 356,195 51,048 17% Malaysia 40,023 -16,377 -29% 26,000 185% 191,492 67,849 55% UK 24,924 335 1% 10,152 69% 99,200 28,816 41% Other origins 71,545 -34,548 -33% -53,439 -43% 363,595 -32,928 -8% Imports by destination Netherlands 141,373 -36,096 -20% 17,186 14% 596,946 146,916 33% Spain 63,670 2,830 5% 44,530 233% 236,133 30,307 15% Sweden 5,705 -456 -7% -8,576 -60% 34,856 -82 -0% Other origins 20,588 -32,533 -61% -20,977 -50% 142,547 -62,356 -30% Total 231,336 -66,255 -22% 32,163 16% 1,010,481 114,785 13% — GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.64pc in June
Brazil’s inflation slows to 4.64pc in June
Sao Paulo, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil's inflation slowed to an annual 4.64pc in June, with lower motor fuel prices helping offset higher electricity bills. The consumer price index IPCA decelerated from 4.72pc in May , national statistics agency IBGE said on Friday, after accelerating from 4.39pc in April. Housing costs, appointed as the largest contributors to the monthly gain in the index in June, decelerated to 5.85pc from 6.22pc a month earlier, mostly thanks to electricity bills and tax readjustments for power supply in some southern states. Food and beverage costs, which weigh heavily on the index, contributed the most with the monthly decrease in the IPCA, decelerating to an annual 3.82pc in June from 3.87pc in May. Lower prices for coffee, fruits and meat drove the result, IBGE said. Transport costs slowed to 3.95pc in the month from 4.05pc in May. Lower prices for ethanol, diesel, gasoline and compressed natural gas (CNG) weighed on motor fuel costs, despite an increase in airfares. The annual gain for June was down from 5.35pc in June 2025. Inflation expectations, as calculated by the central bank's Focus survey, remain above target at 5.3pc for 2026 and recently ticked up to 4.18pc for 2027. Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 14.25pc in June. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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