Biofuels and feedstocks
Overview
Demand for biofuels is increasing significantly, driven by the need to decarbonise road transport as part of the energy transition. Global biofuels output is expected to rise by more than 3mn b/d in the next five years, and such rapid growth means that new challenges and opportunities are constantly emerging. Keeping on top of the ever-changing biofuels landscape requires accurate pricing, insightful analysis and access to the latest data.
The Argus biofuels solution provides in-depth pricing and market analysis across the entire global renewable fuel supply chain, from original feedstock to finished fuel, with prices and key insights into regional biodiesel, ethanol and feedstock markets.
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Participation in CO₂ Auction Declines
Participation in CO₂ Auction Declines
Hamburg, 2 September (Argus) — The number of participants and the bidding volume both declined at the tenth auction of national emissions certificates (nEZ) today, 2 September, mainly because of the low allocation rate combined with high financing costs. A total of 108 participants submitted bids for 508,183,972 national emissions certificates (nEZ). In each of the previous two weeks, 112 participants had taken part in the auctions. The total bid volume fell by around 4pc compared with the previous week. As was the case at the eighth and ninth auction dates, the €65 rule was again not applied, meaning the allocation rate remained at just under 2pc. Market participants said that, given the very low allocation rate, participation in the auctions is becoming increasingly uneconomic because of the associated financing costs. This may explain the decline in the number of auction participants. For example, a bidder seeking to acquire 100,000 nEZ through the auction must bid the maximum price of €65/nEZ. Otherwise, the bidder would be unlikely to secure any allocation. But because the allocation rate is now predictably around 2pc, the bidder would need to submit bids for a total of 5,000,000 nEZ. At the clearing price of €65/nEZ, this requires financing of €325mn. Interest costs accrue on this amount for the period during which the funds must be deposited. As a result, some market participants are withdrawing from the auctions and instead plan to purchase additional nEZ from November onwards at the fixed price of €68/nEZ, plus any applicable fees. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Ryanair cuts winter flights on unhedged fuel exposure
Ryanair cuts winter flights on unhedged fuel exposure
London, 2 September (Argus) — European airline Ryanair will cut services in the coming winter to reduce exposure to higher costs for unhedged jet fuel, and said it may increase ticket prices. Ryanair expects 214mn passengers in the year to 31 March 2027, down from its previous forecast for 216mn. The company did not say how many flights or which routes it will cut, but they will be during the "unprofitable" November-March period when air travel demand stoops to its annual nadir. Ryanair expects passenger demand to be broadly flat year-on-year in this period. Ryanair has hedged 80pc of its jet fuel demand for its 2027 financial year, but significantly higher jet prices means unhedged fuel costs much more. Hedges using crude or gasoil derivatives may be less successful if jet fuel spreads remain wide. Jet fuel prices in northwest Europe averaged almost $1,300/t in August, about 80pc higher on the year, Argus assessments show. The cut to winter services will reduce Ryanair's projected losses over winter by €70mn-100mn ($81mn-116mn), it said. If fuel prices stay high, Ryanair said short-haul airfares will have to rise in Europe. Airlines that are not well-hedged will struggle this winter, it said, which could force them to trim capacity or even lead to their demise. Higher jet fuel prices have weighed heavily on airlines' financial performance , and caused the US' Spirit Airlines to shut down earlier this year. Ryanair still expects to make a profit in its 2027 financial year, although it declined to offer a forecast. The airline made more than €2bn in profit in the 2026 financial year . The airline carried 22.2mn passengers in August, up by 6pc on the year. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EPA grants 18 full refinery biofuel exemptions
EPA grants 18 full refinery biofuel exemptions
Houston, 31 August (Argus) — The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted exemptions from 2025 biofuel blending requirements to 18 refiners on Monday and partial exemptions to 11 others, many of which had been pending for more than a year. The agency exempted a total of 1.76bn credits by granting 18 full small refinery exemptions (SREs) and 11 partial exemptions. It denied three petitions and ruled two ineligible. In a supplemental document, the EPA said it would propose reallocating 100pc of the difference between projected and actual exempted volumes from the petitions that were fully or partially granted. Prior to deciding on the 2025 compliance year SREs, EPA estimated 990mn RINs would be exempted. SREs are a form of temporary exemption from Renewable Fuel Standard obligations for petroleum-based refineries with a nameplate capacity of 75,000 b/d or less. To receive a partial or full SRE, refiners must demonstrate that compliance would cause disproportionate economic hardship to qualify for an exemption. The EPA gave notice of the action ten days prior , when it outlined its intentions to delay the 2025 compliance deadline for RFS obligations while signaling it would first clear the backlog of unprocessed SRE petitions. In the meantime, speculation within Renewable Identification Number credit markets caused sharp swings in prices and liquidity. Concerns that total SRE volumes could reach 1.8bn credits pushed prices down to 175¢/RIN for current-year ethanol D6 credits and 188.5¢/RIN for biomass-based diesel D4 credits. RINs are credits produced and traded by refiners and importers to comply with the RFS program. Obligated parties generate credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or they can purchase credits from other RIN producers to meet their obligations. Immediately following the announcement, biofuel and agricultural industry groups voiced overall displeasure with the substantial exemptions but welcomed the EPA's intention to reallocate 100pc of the remaining volume. RIN markets moved higher sharply as well, with current year D6 credits trading at 225¢/RIN while concurrent D4 RINs last offered at 240¢/RIN. The EPA also set the date for 2025 RFS compliance at 1 October 2026, extending the deadline 30 days. By Matthew Cope US EPA 2025 Small Refiner Exemptions Refinery Location Capacity b/d 2025 SRE decision Delek Kortz Springs, Louisiana 80,000.0 Full Grant Delek Big Spring, Texas 73,000.0 Full Grant America Refining Group Bradford, Pennsylvania 11,000.0 Denial Big West Oil Salt Lake City, Utah 31,664.0 Partial Grant Calumet Great Falls, Montana 15,000.0 Full Grant Calumet Shreveport, Louisiana 57,000.0 Full Grant Chevron Salt Lake City, Utah 54,720.0 Full Grant CHS Laurel, Montana 62,500.0 Full Grant Countrymark Mount Vernon, Indiana 36,700.0 Full Grant Delek Tyler, Texas 74,000.0 Full Grant Ergon Vicksburg, Mississippi 25,000.0 Partial Grant Ergon Newell, West Virginia 22,000.0 Denial HF Sinclair Artesia, New Mexico 110,000.0 Ineligible HF Sinclair Evansville, Wyoming 31,000.0 Partial Grant HF Sinclair Sinclair, Wyoming 85,000.0 Partial Grant HF Sinclair Tulsa, Oklahoma 70,300.0 Full Grant HF Sinclair West Bountiful, Utah 41,700.0 Denial Hunt Tuscaloosa, Alabama 50,000.0 Full Grant Kern Bakersfield, California 26,000.0 Full Grant Delek El Dorado, Arkansas 83,000.0 Full Grant Marathon Mandan, North Dakota 74,000.0 Partial Grant Par Billings, Montana 61,500.0 Full Grant Phillips 66 Billings, Montana 66,000.0 Partial Grant Placid Port Allen, Louisiana 75,000.0 Partial Grant San Joaqin Bakersfield, California 15,000.0 Partial Grant Silver Eagle Evanston, Wyoming 3,000.0 Full Grant Silver Eagle West Bountiful, Utah 15,000.0 Partial Grant Cenovus Superior, Wisconsin 49,547.0 Full Grant Lazarus San Antonio, Texas 20,000.0 Full Grant Par Tacoma, Washington 40,700.0 Partial Grant United Refining Warren, Pennsylvania 67,000.0 Full Grant Vertex Saraland, Alabama 88,000.0 Ineligible CVR Wynnewood, Oklahoma 74,500.0 Full Grant HF Sinclair Sinclair, Wyoming 75,000.0 Partial Grant US Environmental Protection Agency Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Brazil eyes tiered SAF certificates values
Q&A: Brazil eyes tiered SAF certificates values
Sao Paulo, 28 August (Argus) — Brazil's civil aviation agency Anac will launch a public consultation next week on how to calculate sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and monitor compliance under the ProBioQAV program requiring airlines to reduce domestic emissions starting in 2027. Anac will define the methodology and monitor compliance with the rules, while hydrocarbons regulator ANP will be responsible for monitoring issuance, registration and record-keeping of sustainability certificates for SAF — known as CS-SAF. Anac is suggesting that the certification carry different prices according to each production pathway's GHG reductions. Anac's governance and environment superintendent Marcelo Bernardes and technical manager for mitigation measures and energy transition Ricardo Dupont spoke to Argus about the next steps for the regulation and the outlook for Brazil's SAF market. Edited highlights follow: How should CS-SAF trading be standardized, given the different carbon footprints of the fuel? Dupont: CS-SAF is like a birth certificate. It is different from a carbon credit, which represents the reduction or removal of a metric tonne of CO2 from the atmosphere. The SAF blender agent will have the right to issue the CS-SAF. Each CS-SAF corresponds to a volume of SAF with specific characteristics, emissions and life cycle. There is no common unit. There is an abatement cost. The abatement cost per fuel will vary. If I have the same production cost for two types of SAF and one cuts emissions by 50pc and the other by 30pc, the abatement cost is different. Operators will always seek the one with the lowest abatement cost in R/tonne of CO2 so that their compliance cost is as low as possible. The decree assigns Anac to define the calculation methodology to verify emission reductions achieved by using SAF and other low carbon fuels or technologies. What parameters will be used and what will be the base year for measuring these reductions? Bernardes: The CO2 reduction targets will apply to the current year. Companies will look at all their 2027 emissions and calculate to reach 1pc by using SAF or another alternative fuel. Companies will have until 31 March of the following year to submit an emissions report to Anac. What will be the main challenges in monitoring the use of SAF, lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) and other alternatives, particularly regarding traceability and proof of environmental benefits? Bernardes: In terms of safety, aviation fuel is under tight control, so that is not a concern. CS-SAF will make monitoring much easier, ensuring traceability and avoiding double counting. It also helps that Anac has maintained an emissions inventory for 10 years. We receive air traffic control information for all flights in Brazil and know origin, destination, airline and aircraft model. That greatly facilitates inspections and allows highly reliable checks. Anac's regulation will go to public consultation next week. The material will include fines and penalties for non compliance. The decree splits responsibility between ANP and Anac for implementing ProBioQAV program. How will the two agencies coordinate? Bernardes: ANP and Anac have been coordinating for quite some time. We have weekly meetings with ANP on the law, so there should be no overlap. We have spoken extensively about the certificate and how trading will work. Is there any estimate of the regulatory and financial impact of the new requirements on airlines? Does the agency see a risk of ticket price increases? Bernardes: SAF can cost two-to-three times more than jet kerosine. The decree was cautious in setting a gradual increase in blending, precisely to allow Brazil to develop an SAF production chain. In addition, the decree introduces other mechanisms. CS-SAFs can only be traded among airlines. There will initially be no secondary market share. The focus will be on those needing to meet the mandate. By Natalia Dalle Cort Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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