Coal
Overview
Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.
In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.
In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.
Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.
Latest coal news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global coal industry.
Climate plans improve but off track for 1.5°C goal: UN
Climate plans improve but off track for 1.5°C goal: UN
Edinburgh, 27 October (Argus) — Countries' nationally determined contributions — climate plans — have improved in quality and scope, but progress in lowering emissions remains "substantially off track" to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C and keep a temporary overshoot short, according to a report from UN climate body the UNFCCC released today. The report took into account 127 new nationally determined contributions — climate plans — released between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026, representing 154 out of 194 parties to the Paris agreement. The 154 parties account for around 71pc of total greenhouse emissions, according to the report. The report does not include the US — the world's second-biggest emitter — since the country officially left the Paris accord last year. The UNFCCC found that GHG emission reductions — including land use, land-use change and forestry — stemming from the implementation of NDCs are projected to peak and decline by 2035, reaching 6pc below 2019 levels on average. The cuts would imply "best-estimate warming of 1.7-2.3°C by the end of the century", the report said, adding that "returning warming to 1.5°C would require substantial additional GHG emission reductions in the coming years". The NDCs "show improvement, compared with the previous NDCs, in the quality and depth of information provided, as well as broader thematic coverage", the UNFCCC said. The organisation found that energy transition is a common theme in the NDCs and that electrification plays "an increasingly important role in reducing emissions while strengthening energy security". "Against the backdrop of recent energy crises, almost two thirds of parties highlighted the contribution of mitigation measures to energy security, particularly through renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements," the report said. The report showed that 27pc of countries referred "to transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner" as per the call made at Cop 28 in Dubai and that 10pc reported targets for cutting fossil fuel fired power generation by 2035, representing a 258TWh reduction. Around 6pc of the parties included fossil fuel phase-out targets, according to the report. The report found that parties in their NDCs increased their focus on creating enabling conditions for renewable energy deployment, efficiency improvements and electrification, with around 70pc reporting measures to improve electricity grids. It also showed that 92pc of the parties included methane in their NDCs and, of those, 29pc pointed to renewable energy generation as a key supply-side driver of energy security by replacing imported fuels with domestic energy sources. A total of 94pc of parties mentioned in their NDCs that they plan to use — or may use — voluntary co-operation under Article 6 of the Paris agreement and 81pc referred to the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes — when countries exchange emissions savings bilaterally to be counted towards their NDCs. The UN Cop 31 climate summit due to take place in Turkey next month "can help address some of the key gaps highlighted in this year's reports with its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation, UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s thermal coal imports set for October rebound
India’s thermal coal imports set for October rebound
Singapore, 26 October (Argus) — India's thermal coal imports are set to rebound in October as record coal-fired generation and stronger post-monsoon industrial demand lift coal consumption in the world's second-largest importing country. The country is estimated to import 15.06mn t of thermal coal, the highest since May 2025 when receipts totalled 18.54mn t, according to estimates from trade analytics firm Kpler. October imports could rise from 12.54mn t a year earlier and 11.29mn t in September to the highest for the month in three years. This would mark the first year-on-year increase since January, Kpler data show. The rebound comes as India's coal-fired generation has reached a record for the month so far, drawing down inventories as coal burn outpaces domestic deliveries, while demand from industries including cement and sponge iron remains strong. The October receipts predominantly reflect cargoes booked in late September and early October, when Indian buyers began aggressively seeking post-monsoon supplies despite prices reaching multi-year highs. Argus assessed GAR 4,200 kcal/kg coal for Supramax cargoes at $78.48/t fob Kalimantan on 23 October, little changed from a three-and-a-half-year high of $78.63/t on 16 October. The rebound in buying reflected restocking demand as well as stronger post-monsoon consumption from the non-power sector ahead of the festive and winter seasons. Cement makers are looking for coal cargoes as feedstock because of higher petroleum coke prices, while sponge iron makers eye high fixed-carbon coal, mainly from South Africa. Cfr India 6.5pc sulphur coke rose for the 15th consecutive week to $187.50/t on 21 October, making domestic as well as coal from regions including Asia and Africa attractive. Power sector demand Power sector coal consumption has surged, with nationwide coal-fired generation reaching 86.27TWh over 1-22 October, up by 27.6pc on the year and 9.4pc above the previous high for the period in 2023, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). Utility coal imports have been supported by demand from plants designed to run on imported coal, which have a combined capacity of 17.77GW, representing around 8pc of India's coal-fired generation capacity. Demand from domestic coal-fired utilities for imported coal for blending has remained weak in the absence of a fresh government directive, increasing reliance on inventories in recent weeks. Elevated coal burn has weighed on authorities' efforts to rebuild inventories ahead of the festive and winter seasons. Combined stocks at Indian power plants reached 19.93mn t as of 25 October, sufficient for about six days of consumption against a norm of 19 days on an average depending on plant location, compared with 44.58mn t in mid-October last year. Combined stocks were down from 20.78mn t on 30 September, but several domestic coal-fired plants were facing severe shortages. The number of plants holding less than 25pc of their normative stocks, which the CEA classifies as critical, rose to 98 from 15. Power sector demand has also been supported by weak hydropower output, which fell by 16.4pc on the year in September and is tracking lower in October. Coal-fired generation in September, by comparison, rose by 15pc on the year. Coal supplied 69pc of electricity over 1-22 October, more than four times the contribution from renewables combined, CEA data show. Coal met more evening demand as solar generation faded and wind continued to decline, and a month-on-month drop in gas-fired generation, while farm sector power demand increased. Power sector coal demand could remain firm if warmer weather persists. Strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue into early 2027. The World Meteorological Organization expects sea temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region to be around 3.7°C above normal in October-December, with El Nino strengthening towards a December peak and likely persisting through February 2027. Supply India's coal-fired generation rose by 6.6pc on the year to 1,021.36TWh during January-September, while domestic coal dispatches to the power sector increased by just 3.4pc to 636.39mn t over the same period, according to Argus analysis based on CEA and coal ministry data. The divergence indicates that growth in domestic coal deliveries has lagged the rise in coal-fired generation, contributing to the drawdown in utility inventories. Monsoon rains exacerbated the supply constraints, disrupting coal logistics and flooding some mines, while railway loadings also declined. Authorities are working with coal producers and the railways to accelerate coal evacuation and transportation from mines. State-controlled producer Coal India (CIL) said it had 67mn t of pithead inventories as of 30 September to meet any demand surge, while output and dispatches from its mines continue to recover. Tighter domestic availability was also reflected in CIL's September spot e-auctions, where premiums averaged 94pc over notified prices, compared with 59pc in August, as industrial buyers competed for supplies. Domestic supply should improve in the fourth quarter, typically a stronger period for coal production, but it remains uncertain whether supply growth will catch up with demand, a trader said, pointing to the possibility of steady imports in the months ahead. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Growth in coal-power vs coal supplies to utilities, YoY % India thermal coal imports Mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China's climate influence faces coal test
China's climate influence faces coal test
Expectations of greater Chinese climate leadership may run ahead of Beijing's own ambitions Beijing, 24 October (Argus) — China's growing dominance in clean-energy manufacturing and deployment is increasing its influence over the global energy transition. But its expanding coal-fired power fleet sits at odds with expectations that Beijing could assume a larger leadership role at future UN climate conferences. The US' Paris agreement exit and concerns about economic growth in Europe have put the spotlight on China, with global climate goals in peril. Global renewable capacity more than doubled between 2016 and 2025, while renewable generation rose by 67pc, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. China accounted for more than half of global solar capacity and nearly half of global wind capacity in 2025 — its solar capacity reached 1,202GW and wind capacity 641GW — underscoring its central role in the energy transition. China's climate contribution extends beyond its emissions trajectory. Its firms are central to supply chains for solar modules, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable fuels, and its manufacturing scale has helped lower the cost of clean tech. But it also operates the world's largest coal-fired power fleet and critics argue that industrial influence alone is not enough. Climate leadership ultimately requires a credible pathway to reducing fossil fuel use and emissions, observers say. But Beijing has shown little desire for a larger political role in climate governance. While speculation over a bid to host a future Cop has surfaced, China's official messaging still emphasises its developing-country status and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. The key test for China is whether clean power growth is sufficient to displace fossil fuel-based generation rather than simply meeting rising energy demand, UK-based think-tank Ember says. Clean energy met all China's incremental power demand in 2025 and coal-fired output fell, according to the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and US-based Global Energy Monitor. But China still added the most coal capacity in a decade, and the expansion continued in 2026, with 30GW commissioned in January-June, up by 43pc on the year. Work began on another 25.4GW, while just 2.7GW was retired, according to the two organisations. But rapidly retiring coal assets would create economic and reliability challenges. Beijing's path Beijing's response is not to pursue a European-style coal-retirement strategy. Instead, policymakers are looking to retain a substantial coal fleet while expanding renewables, storage and grid infrastructure. China's 2025-27 coal-fired power upgrade plan calls for greater flexibility to accommodate renewables, and another low-carbon transformation plan promotes biomass and ammonia co-firing and carbon capture, utilisation and storage. Questions remain over whether this pathway is a credible route to decarbonisation, as some analysts warn that ammonia co-firing and other retrofits could prolong the life of coal assets. Rather than pursuing leadership through international rule-setting or a fossil fuel phase-out agenda, China has sought to shape the transition through investment, industrial capacity and technology deployment. But for some western governments and climate groups, leadership is increasingly measured by political commitments, fossil fuel policies and international diplomacy. These competing visions in an era where technology deployment, industrial capability and diplomatic ambition do not always move at the same pace may help explain China's lack of enthusiasm for a greater political part. As China's role in the transition expands, the question may not be whether it can become a climate leader without a coal phase-out, but whether it is actually seeking the kind of climate leadership that much of the world increasingly expects it to assume. Top 5 solar producers 2025 Top 5 wind energy producers 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Energy security backs stalled fossil fuel shift
Energy security backs stalled fossil fuel shift
The Hormuz crisis has sparked interest in quick wins that could also have long-term benefits, writes Caroline Varin Edinburgh, 23 October (Argus) — Talks on transitioning from fossil fuels are unlikely to progress in official UN Cop 31 summit negotiations in Antalya, Turkey. But energy security concerns resulting from the US-Iran war are keeping the topic firmly on the international agenda. Initiatives such as a global roadmap to move away from fossil fuels, which the Brazilian UN Cop 30 presidency will present at this year's Cop 31 summit, will largely be dealt with outside of negotiations where decisions are taken by consensus. Major fossil fuel producers, which pushed back on the topic in Brazil last year, argue the transition was sufficiently addressed at Cop 28 in 2023 and that negotiations should focus on cutting emissions and not their sources. Discussions have stalled since Cop 28 concluded with a historic agreement on fossil fuels . This year may not be the time for transition discussions to be included in official Cop negotiations, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) senior policy advisor Natalie Jones says. Such talks would "toxify" agenda items and probably result in more deadlock, she says. "That is not to say that formal negotiations are devalued, but it's a realistic assessment of where we are at." Phasing out fossil fuels remains critical and will be discussed at Cop 31, Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven said, adding that more countries will announce plans in Antalya. But this will happen as part of the informal summit's action agenda, where stakeholders meet to advance implementation. Turkey and Australia — presiding over Cop 31 — highlighted the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels, but have yet to lead by example. Australia is the world's second-largest coal exporter after Indonesia, while Turkey is the seventh-largest coal importer, according to the IEA. "It makes sense to strategically start to plan to overcome the issue of demand decline," IISD's Jones says. "Turkey and Australia could help to show the way. If there are no leaders that step up in this regard, I think it's going to be a real problem." Umit Sahin, head of climate change studies at the Istanbul Policy Centre, does not expect a push from Turkey towards major producers on the question of transitioning away from fossil fuels. "Turkey appears to have decided that [the topic] itself is not a place to go in the formal Cop negotiations and has decided to approach it through electrification — from an end-use point of view," he said. Energy crisis/opportunity But the energy security crisis stemming from the US-Iran war is supporting clean energy development because this field offers quick solutions that will ultimately benefit climate action, IEA executive director Fatih Birol says. Economies reliant on Middle East oil and gas scrambled to secure supplies and implement measures to mitigate disruption — energy conservation, direct subsidies and tax cuts, for example. The crisis has also sharpened political focus on electrification. The crisis is a lesson for consuming countries , and the resulting shift towards electrification will affect oil demand, TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne has said. The IEA puts the global demand reduction since the start of the conflict at more than 1bn bl, driven by steep declines in China . There will be no more turning back from clean energy, utility EDF UK's non-executive chair, Alex Chisholm, told the FT Energy Transition Summit earlier this month. This will not be enough to meet the Paris goals, Birol warned, although he said he is hopeful about an agreement on electrification at Cop 31. Turkey set a goal for its action agenda to increase electricity's share of final energy demand worldwide to 35pc by 2035 . But the call sits outside of formal negotiations. Arab countries have signalled that they see no need for a "universal" agreement under the informal action agenda. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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