Coal
Overview
Global thermal coal prices surged to record levels in 2022, experiencing unprecedented volatility. Prices have since come off as risks associated with Europe’s supply recede. At a global level, coal demand remains robust with security of supply shifting higher up the agenda of many governments in light of geopolitical upheaval.
In Europe, sanctions have shifted the region’s coal import mix away from Russia and towards other suppliers. The pace of coal plant phase-outs in the region is set to increase in the years ahead, with the role of coal in the electricity mix shifting further towards peak-load usage, making forward planning more challenging.
In Asia-Pacific, thermal coal remains a pillar of the power and industrial sectors. Global coal trade flows and price spreads are shifting, with flows from key suppliers Russia, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, Colombia, and the US penetrating new markets, in response to price dynamics and trade barriers.
Keeping on top of prices and flows, and how coal markets intersect with other energy and commodity benchmarks, will be critical in the coming years.
Latest coal news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global coal industry.
Indonesia rules out coal export curbs
Indonesia rules out coal export curbs
Singapore, 26 June (Argus) — Indonesia does not plan to introduce additional restrictions on coal exports, with the government focused on enforcing existing regulations to meet supply requirements of state-owned utility PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the energy ministry (ESDM) said. "There is no new proposal to introduce additional restrictions, as the necessary regulatory framework is already in place," the ministry told Argus on 26 June. Authorities will instead ensure "effective implementation" of provisions under the domestic market obligation (DMO). The response comes after energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on 25 June that some coal shipments earmarked for export were being held back on the direct order of President Prabowo Subianto to prioritise domestic supply to PLN's power plants to address shortages at state-owned utility PLN that have triggered blackouts across Java. The minister's comments revived memories of late 2021 , when a similar supply crunch prompted a full export ban in January 2022, jolting global coal markets. The Directorate General of Mineral and Coal (Minerba) had temporarily withheld certain export shipments to ensure the availability of coal with the required calorific value for PLN's primary energy needs. "The volume of exports temporarily withheld was adjusted based on PLN's operational requirements," the ministry said, adding that with domestic supply conditions now improving, coal exports are proceeding normally. The temporary export diversion took place as part of the regulatory oversight function, ESDM said, rather than as a punitive or market-wide measure. The move to hold back some coal exports in favour of domestic supply has injected fresh uncertainty into the seaborne market with lingering concerns on more shipments making way to meet PLN's growing demand, especially during the peak summer season with the El Nino weather pattern aggravating the temperatures and power consumption. Supply contracts totalling about 141mn t has already been secured against PLN's total annual requirement of 154mn t, leaving a 13mn t gap, ESDM said, reiterating a shortfall acknowledged by the minister on 25 June. PLN's primary energy procurement would be subject to enhanced scrutiny to ensure its fuel requirements are met, ESDM said. The oversight would be undertaken by authorities including representatives from the Financial and Development Supervisory Agency (BPKP), ESDM, the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, and PLN. "Such oversight is a normal and necessary regulatory function to ensure that the DMO policy is effectively implemented, particularly in securing coal supply for PLN's primary energy requirements," the ministry said. The enhanced scrutiny comes as Jakarta scrambles to address shortages at PLN that have triggered blackouts across Java. It would add to a series of measures taken by the government to boost its oversight of the sector including coal producer's DMO performance. Indonesia might also review this year's production quotas, or RKABs, in July, according to market participants. The regulatory steps extend beyond domestic supply. Indonesia has set up a state-owned entity, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, to centralise coal exports, although authorities later clarified that the company would mainly focus on monitoring trades to prevent under-invoicing. All exports are expected to be channelled through the new entity, in line with the original plan announced last month. Quality vs quantity The current shortage stems less from an absolute lack of supply than from a mismatch in coal quality. The gap lies specifically in medium-calorific value (CV) coal above GAR 5,000 kcal/kg, which PLN uses to blend with lower-grade supply to maintain boiler performance, Bahlil said. While DMO volumes appear sufficient on paper — with 180mn–190mn t allocated and 160mn–170mn t committed — domestic deliveries have been skewed toward lower-CV coal, with mid-CV material likely being absorbed by the export market. Indonesia's 2026 production quotas, or RKABs, were cut to around 600mn t from 817mn t in 2025, tightening overall supply headroom and adding pressure on availability of specific grades for the domestic market. Indonesia exported 151.1mn t of all types of coal in January-April , down by 6.9pc from a year earlier, while output in the first four months of 2026 is estimated at 230mn–235mn t, down from a revised 250.5mn t in the same period of 2025. Industry bodies point to the DMO pricing regime as a root cause of the supply crunch. The government caps coal sold to power utilities at $70/t for GAR 6,322 kcal/kg — a level unchanged since 2018 — while the benchmark HBA price for the same grade currently stands near $124/t. For medium-grade coal, the effective DMO price falls to around $35–40/t against an HBA benchmark of roughly $60/t, leaving producers with negligible or negative margins on compliant supply. The Indonesian mining professionals' body, Perhimpunan Ahli Pertambangan Indonesia (Perhapi), has proposed raising the DMO price to $80–90/t, while the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called for a periodic adjustment mechanism linking DMO prices to a percentage of the HBA. By Saurabh Chaturvedi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
House committee advances data center power bill: Update
House committee advances data center power bill: Update
Updates with statement from Data Center Coalition in the fifth paragraph Houston, 25 June (Argus) — A US House of Representatives subcommittee advanced a bill to make large-load power users such as data centers pay their own way when it comes to powering their projects, an effort to protect regular consumers from higher utility bills. The House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy approved the measure by voice vote Wednesday as part of a package of electricity bills, sending it to the full committee for further consideration. The bill would require developers of projects requiring 100MW of power or greater to cover the full cost of new power plants, transmission lines or other grid upgrades needed to serve their facilities. The legislation, HR 9340, known as the Ratepayer Protection Act, was introduced by Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colorado) and co-sponsored by Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Florida). The bipartisan bill largely mirrors President Donald Trump's ratepayer protection pledge, under which major technology companies, including Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, agreed in March to ensure that the costs of powering new data centers, including grid upgrades, are not passed on to residential consumers. Rep. Frank Pallone (D-New Jersey), the panel's top Democrat, noted the suite of bills — which also included measures to improve load forecasting, speed up generator interconnection, and expand transmission capacity — was a "useful first step", but he said more aggressive action was needed to "ensure that data center developers are held accountable and that consumers aren't left holding the bill." An industry group representing data center developers endorsed the House measure. "We are committed to paying the full cost of the energy we use," Data Center Coalition (DCC) chief executive Josh Levi said in a statement. "DCC supports the approach taken by the Ratepayer Protection Act to achieve this goal and ensure the industry's energy costs are not shouldered by residents and businesses." Manufacturing groups are pressing lawmakers to narrow the bill's scope, warning that its broad definition of "large-load customers" could sweep in energy-intensive industries well beyond data centers. In a letter to the committee, the Industrial Energy Consumers of America urged legislators to instead target "large computational load" users, arguing the current language risks raising costs and creating regulatory uncertainty for manufacturers that compete globally and are not driving recent spikes in electricity demand. The measure now heads to the full Energy and Commerce Committee for consideration, where it could face further amendments before any potential consideration by entire House. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Plant upgrades may delay rise in US coal demand
Plant upgrades may delay rise in US coal demand
Houston, 25 June (Argus) — Recent federal initiatives to support the US coal industry may initially delay any uptick in coal demand as power plant operators upgrade coal-fired units to reliably meet growing energy needs. US president Donald Trump on 4 June directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to provide hundreds of millions of dollars to expand the nation's coal capacity, including $425mn for upgrades at 12 existing coal plants in the US, claiming authority under the Defense Production Act. DOE had previously committed to providing $175mn to support six other coal plant modernization projects. The funding, announced earlier this month, was one of the latest efforts under the Trump administration to delay coal plant retirements to maintain the nation's baseload generation. "With the new trend of US electricity demand increasing rapidly, these actions ensure that rather than eliminate energy sources, the US is maintaining an energy mix that meets the needs of American consumers," Jim Grech, chair of the National Coal Council and chief executive of US producer Peabody Energy, said in remarks to Argus this week. "Our existing coal plants provide essential dispatchable generation, and extending their operation is one of the most cost-effective ways to support reliability and meet incremental demand." Multiple selected recipients of these grants said DOE's support will help to reduce internal cost pressure to complete projects that were already included in their capital investment plans but were not yet adequately funded. US utility Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), for example, was selected to receive up to $46.3mn of the Defense Production Act grants for projects at its Cumberland plant, including previously planned upgrades to turbine and generator systems, the boiler and environmental controls such as a scrubber module, the company told Argus this week. TVA has also committed an additional $69.4mn to the plant. If awarded, the federal grants could also allow utilities to begin work on these projects, which aim to extend the selected plants' operational life and potentially increase their generation capacity, sooner than initially planned. Still, multiple market participants confirmed that most of these plant upgrades may require utilities to put units into recurring forced outages. Sources added that many existing coal plants in the last decade or longer have not received the necessary maintenance and funding to ensure their units can reliably operate over an extended period, especially at higher dispatch levels. Without these funded upgrades, certain coal plants would likely break down within a few days if their operators tried to ramp up their capacity factor rates to the levels needed to meet the increase in power demand anticipated within the next few years, one market participant said. At least some of the coal units set to receive federal funding are currently operating at sub-50pc capacity factor rates, with some operating as low as 30pc, sources said. In order to support the growing energy needs later this decade, market participants claimed capacity rates at these units would need to climb to 60-70pc or higher. Forced coal plant outage rates have already increased by a meaningful measure in the last year. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation's (NERC) annual weighted equivalent forced outage rate calculation for coal units increased to 14.1pc last year from 11.2pc in 2024, according to its 2026 State of Reliability report published on Wednesday. In addition, NERC estimated the amount of unavailable coal-fired generation as a result of plant outages in 2025 grew by 39,835 GWh from the previous year. As such, additional units getting taken off line over extended periods of time to complete work on the planned upgrades may further weigh on near-term coal consumption and generation over the next couple years even as overall electricity demand is expected to rise. Total US coal consumption is projected to fall to 418.8mn short tons (379.9mn metric tonnes) this year and slide again to 403mn st next year, down from 452.4mn st in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on 9 June. Similarly, the agency forecasts domestic coal generation to drop from a year earlier by 6.6pc in 2026 and by 3.2pc in 2027. This decline over the next two years is also expected to reduce coal's portion of the US' fuel mix, which EIA projects will fall to 16pc in 2026 and 15pc in 2027 from 17pc last year. On the other hand, after these coal plant upgrades are completed near the end of the decade and into the 2030s, market participants expect coal to account for a larger portion of the nation's total generation, which is projected to rise by 0.9-1.6pc annually over the next few decades, EIA said in April in its 2026 Annual Energy Outlook . While some sources claim coal's market share in the US could potentially climb to 20pc or higher, other sources have a less robust perspective and only expect coal's share to inch back up to its present level following the completion of the projects. Still, even if only a few larger coal plants were to consistently operate at much higher capacity factor rates in the long-term, that could boost annual coal consumption at each plant by several million short tons, various US utilities and producers estimated. Because of this potential uptick in coal demand, many buyers are concerned whether coal producers, particularly in the eastern US, will have enough availability later this decade and into the 2030s to supply their contract needs. As a result, even though multiple forced outages expected in the near future may weigh on near-term coal use, several utilities were heard in the last few months seeking greater volumes of coal through the end of 2029 and beyond to secure shipments before supply further tightens. By comparison, many eastern US coal buyers in the last couple years rarely solicited the market for term contracts beyond one to two years. By Anna Harmon and Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kyrgyzstan bans coal exports by road for six months
Kyrgyzstan bans coal exports by road for six months
London, 24 June (Argus) — Kyrgyzstan has imposed a six-month ban on coal exports by road, with effect from 23 June. The temporary ban applies to coal from Kyrgyzstan classified under HS codes 2701 and 2702, an official document shows. But the ban will not apply to shipments through the Irkeshtam and Torugart border crossings. Both transport routes are landlocked Kyrgyzstan's primary gateways to China, with the Irkeshtam pass running from the southern coal mining region of Osh and the Torugart road from the northern coal mining region of Naryn through Bishkek. And state-owned producer Kyrgyzkomur is exempt for the ban and can continue exporting by road. Kyrgyzkomur operates the Kara-Keche coal mine in Naryn — one of the country's most important coal deposits. Kyrgyzstan's energy ministry earlier this month announced plans to produce almost 1.62mn t of thermal coal this year from the Kara-Keche mine. Kyrgyzstan produced 1.4mn t of coal from new deposits in 2025. The ban repeals a similar resolution introduced on 3 December that previously regulated coal transport, according to the document. Kyrgyzstan exported around 294,000t of coal in January-March, down by 1.1pc on the year, according to customs data compiled by Global Trade Tracker. It exported nearly 15,000t to China during the same period. Kyrgyzstan imported around 425,200t in the first three months of 2026 from central Asia's largest coal producer Kazakhstan, down by 65pc from a year earlier. Kyrgyzstan plans further measures to boost its coal sector this year, with aims to increase domestic coal-fired generation and cover shortfalls currently offset by importing electricity. The country's grid is mainly powered by coal-fired plants and generates about 14.5 TWh/yr. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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