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New furnaces to support Italian steel power demand
New furnaces to support Italian steel power demand
London, 2 April (Argus) — Rising steel demand and upcoming furnace expansions within Italy's highly electrified steel sector could increase the country's industrial power consumption. But high energy prices in the wake of the US-Iran conflict may limit sector growth. Italy is the second-largest steel producer in Europe, after Germany. It has the most electrified steel industry in the region, with 90pc of production coming from secondary steel made from scrap processed in electric arc furnaces in 2024, compared with an EU average of 45pc, according to steel association Federacciai. The country had 26 electric arc furnaces with a combined capacity of 23.9mn t/yr at the end of 2025, according to independent research body Global Iron and Steel Tracker ( see capacity graph ). Italy's wholesale power prices are consistently among the highest in Europe and prices have risen further since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, owing to Italy's strong gas marginality. Italy's second and third quarter power contracts were up by 39pc at the end of March compared with the end of February. Italian firms are constructing new electric furnaces that are expected to start operating in the next few years, which could increase steel sector electricity demand. Producer Acciaierie Venete announced a new 100t electric arc furnace in Padova, expected to be operational by this summer and projected to produce 750,000 t/yr of steel. This furnace alone would consume about 500 GWh/yr of power, assuming energy consumption of modern electric arc furnaces is around 670 kWh/t, based on steel output and power demand recorded in 2025. Fellow Italian steel producer Metinvest aims to break ground at a site in Piombino in central Italy by mid-2026. The new mill will have two electric arc furnaces and 2.7mn t/yr of hot-rolling capacity for low-emissions hot-rolled products, with production targeted for 2029. These furnaces would add a further 1.8 TWh/yr of power demand. And steelmaker Acciaierie d'Italia plans to phase out Italy's only coal-fired blast furnaces at its Taranto plant and replace them with electric furnaces. The firm's Taranto facility has operated below full capacity for more than 10 years and was placed under extraordinary administration in February 2024. The Italian government has put the Taranto assets up for tender, requiring any buyer to commit to replacing the furnaces with electric ones, with authorisation for 6mn t/yr. Private equity firm Flacks Group has been selected as the preferred bidder, proposing a plan for 4mn t/yr. The switch to electric furnaces was scheduled for 2027, but doubt has been case over the future of the Taranto site owing to production issues and a court order mandating a shutdown because of health concerns. State of play Italy's steel sector accounted for 42.4pc of total power demand from energy-intensive sectors in 2025, at 13.8TWh. This marks a 3.7pc increase from the previous year, according to transmission system operator Terna ( see sectoral graph ). Italy's crude steel output rose by 3.6pc to 20.7mn t in 2025, Federacciai data show. Steel power demand fell by 10pc on the year in 2022 and was stagnant over 2023-24 but turned to growth in 2025 ( see long-term demand graph ). Monthly power demand has consistently increased year on year since July 2025, driven by increased production in anticipation of higher steel demand in 2026 ( see monthly graph ). Steel sector power demand reached 1.3TWh in February, up by 3.7pc on the year, mirroring a 2.6pc increase in crude steel output to 1.9mn t. EU steel demand is forecast to rise by 1.3pc to around 134mn t in 2026, according to European sector association Eurofer. And the EU plans to cut import quotas for flat steel from 1 July. Italy is a major importer of flat steel so the lower quota could boost domestic production. Energy efficiency in the sector increased over 2015-21, with consumption falling from roughly 800 kWh/t to below 700 kWh/t, data from Federacciai show. But power demand per ton of output has been slowly edging up since 2021. Geopolitical worries The Italian government has taken steps to insulate industry from power price increases, but geopolitical risks continue to influence prices. Italy launched its Energy Release Scheme late last year, offering electricity to energy-intensive users at a fixed price of €65/MWh in exchange for commitments to develop renewable capacity and return equivalent power over 20 years. But high energy costs will continue to weigh on steelmakers this year, Eurofer director-general Axel Eggert said, pointing to the impact of the Middle East war on gas markets after the Dutch TTF benchmark moved above €50/MWh in early March. Italian steel and scrap association Assofermet flagged the conflict as a source of potential additional cost pressures in an already volatile market. "Operating complexity and growing concerns related to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the upcoming entry into force of the new safeguard measure are significantly weighing on the market," it said. The rollout of the CBAM — which raises import costs — will be accompanied by a gradual reduction of free allowances under the Emissions Trading System, from which energy intensive industries have long benefited. As free allocations decline, steelmakers will need to buy more allowances, adding further cost burdens. By Ilenia Reale Electric arc furnace capacity by country mn t/yr Sectoral breakdown of industry power demand % Steel power demand, 12-month trailing average TWh/m Power demand vs steel output, monthly Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Carbon - In focus: UK ETS widens discount to EU in Q1
Carbon - In focus: UK ETS widens discount to EU in Q1
London, 2 April (Argus) — The benchmark front-year contract under the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) significantly widened its discount to the EU throughout the first quarter of this year, as scant signs of progress on efforts to link the two systems reduced previous optimism of an impending price convergence, and the UK supply-demand balance remained more relaxed than the EU's. The UK ETS front-year contract closed on average around £14.75/t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) below its EU counterpart in Argus assessments over January-March, having widened from a low of £6.85/t CO2e in mid-January to a high of £25/t CO2e this week. This compares with an average discount of £13.50/t CO2e in the fourth quarter of last year, within a narrower range of £8.80-17.70/t CO2e, and is the widest average discount for any quarter since the first quarter of last year's £21.80/t CO2e. Linkage plans squeeze spread The UK's discount to the EU began to narrow significantly after the UK government said in a statement in March 2025 that it was "actively considering" linking its ETS back to the EU's, a position confirmed by both sides as part of their common understanding agreement concluded between the UK and EU at a summit in May last year. The markets separated in 2021 as part of Brexit, and while the EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement signed as part of that process committed the two sides to giving "serious consideration" to linking the schemes, no meaningful steps towards a link had previously been taken. The news dramatically narrowed the spread between the two markets, with the UK front year's discount to the EU squeezed to an average of £9.90/t CO2e in the second quarter of 2025. A linkage would logically lead to a convergence of UK and EU ETS prices, as the allowances issued under the two schemes would be fungible. Momentum on the issue continued over the remainder of the year and early 2026, as the European Commission set out in July its recommendation for the legal basis for linkage negotiations, approved by member states in November , and the first round of negotiations kicked off in January . But while the EU and UK said that they aimed to complete talks on the linkage before the next UK-EU summit in 2026, no date for the meeting has been set, and updates on negotiations have in recent months been notable by their absence. Recent events have likely pushed ETS linkage down the political agenda, whether on the domestic front — Keir Starmer's position as UK prime minister came under pressure in February — or internationally, most notably as the US-Iran war sparked a renewed energy crisis. EU supply-demand balance tightens Changes to key fundamentals have also tightened the EU ETS supply-demand balance this year in a way that hasn't been seen in the UK ETS, further widening the spread between the markets. Both the maritime and aviation sectors will have to pay for 100pc of their 2026 emissions covered by the EU ETS, after shipping was phased gradually into the system over the previous two years and free allocations for airlines were phased out. Free allocations for industrial sectors covered by the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) are also scheduled to start decreasing from this year alongside the measure's introduction, and some CBAM-exposed firms have begun purchasing EU ETS allowances to hedge their expected costs. The UK also ended free allocations for aviation under its ETS this year. But the maritime sector will not be included at all until July this year, and then will only apply to domestic voyages until at least 2028. And the UK CBAM does not launch until 2027. The UK ETS authority also opted late last year not to introduce a supply adjustment mechanism to the scheme, which could otherwise have reduced allowance auction volumes if the total number of allowances in circulation surpassed a certain level. Short-term fundamentals diverge The US-Iran war has prompted further divergence between the markets. EU ETS prices rallied in tandem with natural gas prices on the expectation that more coal plants would come on line, increasing the carbon intensity of the bloc's generation mix and therefore compliance demand for allowances. The UK, by contrast, has no operational coal-fired units. This has seen carbon costs even for power generators become consistently cheaper in the UK than the EU for the first time since February last year, despite the UK's additional £18/t CO2e carbon price support (CPS) charge on the sector. The discount of the UK ETS to the EU including the CPS stood at an average of around £3.25/t CO2e in March. UK ETS prices could find some support over the coming weeks from last-minute buying in the run-up to the scheme's annual compliance deadline on 30 April, upward pressure that will not be seen in the EU ETS with its 30 September deadline, which could narrow the spread between the markets in the short term. But participants will otherwise be awaiting more clarity on linkage. And with the Middle East conflict dragging on, the approach of local elections in the UK and the planned EU ETS review in July, plenty of factors could slow completion of the talks. By Victoria Hatherick EU, UK ETS front-year contract £/t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump pledges to 'finish the job' quickly in Iran
Trump pledges to 'finish the job' quickly in Iran
Washington, 1 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the US is on track to finish all of its military objectives in the war against Iran "very shortly", but he again called on other countries dependent on Mideast Gulf oil to figure out how to reopen the strait of Hormuz. In his first prime time address to the US public since launching the war with Iran on 28 February, Trump made no new announcements about his plans for the course of the conflict. US armed forces have achieved "overwhelming victories on the battlefield", Trump said. Even so, Trump said he expects the war will continue for weeks, during continued negotiations with Iran and despite his claim earlier in the day that Tehran had asked for a ceasefire. "We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks," Trump vowed. "We're going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong." Trump used the speech to repeat messages he had posted over the last few days on his social media platform. Countries that depend on oil shipped through the strait of Hormuz should "build up some delayed courage", Trump said, and take control of the waterway where 20pc of global oil flows. "They must grab it and cherish it," Trump said. "They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on." Trump openly mocked those countries that refused to join the US war effort and now can not get enough oil with the strait largely closed to traffic. "I have a suggestion: Buy oil from the United States of America," Trump said. "We have plenty. We have so much." And Trump mused that when the conflict ends, "the strait will open up naturally", since Iran will want to sell oil to rebuild. Trump acknowledged that many in the US are "concerned" to see gasoline prices rising, which he blamed "entirely" on the attacks Iran launched on tankers and neighboring countries. Trump said the war in Iran was not so long, when compared with other wars. Trump's national address comes at a time when Republicans are facing declining popularity over the war and its economic ramifications. The conflict has undercut a central message that Trump's policies have lowered prices at the pump and eased inflation. US motorists are now paying $1.05/USG more for gasoline and $1.59/USG more for diesel than they were before the war began. EU countries have begun to slash growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in response to surging commodity prices caused by the closure of the strait of Hormuz. Ryanair chief executive on Wednesday warned the budget airline and other European carriers may need to start cutting flights if the strait remains closed. US allies are confronting a position of dealing with the political fallout of rising prices for a war they did not initiate. "This is not our war," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday. "We will not be drawn into the conflict. That is not in our national interest." The most effective way to ease surging prices, Starmer said, is to push for "de-escalation in the Middle East". The long-term national interest of the UK will require "closer partnership with our allies in Europe and with the European Union", he said. Trump and his cabinet have signaled plans to pull back from Nato, out of their view that members of the defense alliance have failed to offer enough support in the war against Iran. The administration plans to review if remaining in Nato is still serving US interests, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said. "There is no doubt, unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we are going to have to re-examine that relationship," Rubio said in an interview on Fox News on Tuesday. Trump can not pull the US out of Nato without an affirmative vote by two thirds of the US Senate, under a 2023 law that was enacted in response to Trump's threats during his first term to exit the defense alliance. US senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Chris Coons (D-Delaware) on Wednesday said the Senate would continue to support Nato. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran, US presidents trade peace requirements: Update 2
Iran, US presidents trade peace requirements: Update 2
adds Iranian denial of ceasefire request in paragraph 4 London, 1 April (Argus) — The presidents of Iran and the US have each laid out simple conditions required in order for the war to de-escalate, but neither indicated they would take the first step. Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian said late on 31 March that Tehran has the "necessary will" to bring the conflict with the US and Israel to an end, but only once it has ironclad guarantees that they will not attack Iran in the future. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said "Iran's new regime president" — presumably Pezeshkian, but this was not specified — has asked Washington for a ceasefire, but said this request would only be considered when Iran reopens shipping through the strait of Hormuz. Until then the US would continue its military campaign, Trump said. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman has since described Trump's claim of a ceasefire request as "false and baseless", according to Iranian state news agency Press TV. This would be consistent with Tehran's recent stance. Iranian officials, including foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, have repeatedly said Iran is not looking for a ceasefire, but wants a total end to hostilities. They have said a ceasefire will allow for the US and Israel to once again regroup and prepare for future attacks. "We do not believe in a ceasefire," Araqchi said. "We believe in ending the war." The US has been claiming negotiations with unidentified Iranian officials since last week, repeatedly remarking on "very good" progress. Iranian officials have consistently denied that any negotiations are underway. Trump is scheduled to address the US to "provide an important update on Iran" at 21:00 ET on Wednesday (02:00 GMT on Thursday), the White House said. He said on 31 March that US forces could leave the region within two to three weeks. Hormuz disruption The war in the Middle East is in a fifth week, with the US and Israel continuing their heavy aerial campaign against numerous targets across Iran. Tehran has been responding to the attacks by launching missiles and drones at Israel and US-linked assets across the Mideast Gulf, including critical energy infrastructure in Gulf Co-operation Council states. Iranian retaliatory attacks on commercial vessels in and around the strait of Hormuz have heavily restricted traffic through the key waterway, severely curtailing exports of crude oil, oil products, LNG, fertilizers and other commodities from the region. Pezeshkian reiterated that the strait is only closed to vessels with links to "Iran's aggressors and their supporters", and several Asian countries, including Malaysia and Thailand, have said in recent days that Tehran has given assurances of safe passage. Pakistan's foreign minister Ishaq Dar said at the weekend that Iran had approved 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to traverse the strait. Abu Dhabi state-owned Adnoc's chief executive, Sultan al-Jaber, today described the strait's closure as "global extortion", and said "the world must act together to protect the free flow of energy and safeguard economic stability." With the US seemingly preferring other countries to take responsibility for securing the strait, the UK today said it will host this week a meeting of 35 nations' foreign ministers to assess ways of opening the waterway and to make it "accessible and safe after the fighting has stopped". London did not outline which countries are involved, but if they are the same 35 as co-signed a UK letter in mid-March calling for the strait to reopen this would be a new attempt to get an international coalition together. In the early days of the war France said it would create a coalition to secure vessel traffic through Hormuz, but Paris later backtracked on that , in line with the broader EU stance . By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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