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Energy security fears drive diversification spend: IEA
Energy security fears drive diversification spend: IEA
London, 28 May (Argus) — The war in the Middle East, the subsequent de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz, and resulting concerns over energy security are prompting countries and companies to invest in energy diversification and electricity, energy watchdog the IEA said today. The IEA projects that global energy investment will reach $3.4 trillion in 2026, a slight lift on the year . Of this, around $2.2 trillion is set to go to power grids, storage, "low-emissions fuels", nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency and electrification, while around $1.2 trillion is expected to be invested in fossil fuels. "We are in the midst of the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. The war is "expected to reinforce a strong prioritisation of energy security amongst decision-makers", as well as a "renewed focus on resilience and diversification", the IEA said. "Electricity-related investment remains the dominant theme in global energy spending trends", the IEA said. Investment in electricity supply and infrastructure is set to reach nearly $1.6 trillion in 2026, and increase to $2 trillion if end-use electrification is included, the report found. "Electricity is going to make even stronger inroads in the total energy mix as a response to this crisis", Birol said. The watchdog expects renewables spending to reach around $665bn in 2026, with $365bn going just to solar power, $200bn to wind and $75bn to hydropower. The annual growth in renewables spending "has moderated", in part because of declining technology costs, but also policy changes in China and the US. But "low-emissions sources" still make up more than 70pc of global power investment, the IEA said. Investment in fossil fuel supply in 2026 is set to hit just over $1 trillion, returning it "to the 2024 level", the IEA said. Oil investment is expected to drop for a third consecutive year in 2026 to below $500bn. "Uncertainty over the duration of the price spike, long project lead times, supply chain constraints and tighter offshore rig markets are limiting near-term spending responses outside the Middle East" for oil, the IEA said. But investment in natural gas is projected to grow to $330bn, the highest in a decade, driven by new LNG export projects and demand from data centres, the report found. Coal investment is also set to rise, to the highest level since 2012, at $180bn, the IEA said. The bulk of spending, at around 70pc, is in China. Some countries in Asia "may seek to keep existing coal-fired power plants operating for longer to bolster energy security", the IEA said. But it is "too early to say" what the net emission effect of this may be, Birol said today. Investments in renewables, nuclear, energy efficiency and electrification in the past decade "have tangibly improved energy security in major fuel-importing regions and reduced emissions", saving China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, southeast Asia and India around $260bn from avoided fossil fuel imports in 2025, the IEA said. The conflict "has already sparked a search for new energy export routes to reduce excessive reliance on the strait [of Hormuz]", the IEA said. And repair bills for damage to energy infrastructure are "difficult to establish" but are "set to run into tens of billions of dollars", the organisation added. Oil companies are "recalibrating their expectations for upcoming years, on the assumption that oil prices will settle back above the pre-conflict baseline as countries replenish their inventories", the IEA said. "Trust will be an important element in the energy world", in coming months and years, as governments seek reliable energy partners, Birol said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran, US dispute status of Hormuz in draft deal: Update
Iran, US dispute status of Hormuz in draft deal: Update
Updates with US comments, other details London, 27 May (Argus) — A draft agreement to end the war between the US and Iran includes a pledge from Tehran to return the number of commercial ships passing the strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, Iranian state television reported on Wednesday. But President Donald Trump later on Wednesday pushed back against Tehran's assertion of control over Hormuz and other Iranian demands. Crude futures fell sharply after the report by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, with front-month Ice Brent approaching $94/bl, the lowest intraday level since 21 April. Prices subsequently regained some ground. IRIB said it had seen a "first draft" of a 14-point agreement that said "managing the passage of ships… and receiving fees for services remains at the discretion of [Iran], which will work in co-operation with Oman". In return, IRIB said the US has pledged to lift the maritime blockade on Iran, and has agreed to "make a commitment" on the issue of its military presence in countries neighbouring Iran. The IRIB report contains no mention of agreement on other key issues, like Iran's nuclear programme, or on the repatriation of funds to Tehran. Iranian officials previously indicated they are eyeing the return of its funds frozen in foreign banks under US mandates. Trump, in televised remarks at the Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, said he expects the strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately if an agreement is signed. "The strait (of Hormuz) is going to be open to everybody," Trump said. "We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it, nobody's going to control it." Tehran has touted a joint Iranian-Omani mechanism to control navigation through Hormuz. "It's international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, and we'll have to blow them up," Trump said. "They understand that. They'll be fine." Iran should not count on immediate relief of US sanctions or repatriation of funds, Trump said. "We're not talking about any easing of sanctions or giving money," Trump said. "We'll keep control of that money. When they behave properly, and when they do what's right, we'll let them have their money, but right now we're not doing that." By Nader Itayim, Ben Winkley and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CEE gas stocks to reach 70pc by 1 Nov amid deficit
CEE gas stocks to reach 70pc by 1 Nov amid deficit
London, 27 May (Argus) — Central and eastern Europe's (CEE) gas storage injections remain too slow to fully offset a year-on-year deficit, with inventories on track to reach 70pc by 1 November, as conditions diverge across countries depending on supply and storage mandates. The region's average injection rate was almost unchanged on the year at 69.6 GWh/d over 1 April–25 May, compared with 68.7 GWh/d a year earlier. This kept the storage deficit in place because the EU ended winter with much lower stocks than a year earlier. Austria recorded the largest year-on-year shortfall at 7.6TWh, followed by the Czech Republic at 5.1TWh and Slovakia at 2.5TWh on 26 May, GIE transparency platform data show (see stocks graph ). The combined inventory deficit in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia was 15.7TWh on 26 May. If current year-on-year differences in injection rates hold through the summer, the regional storage fill could reach 70pc by 1 November, down from 82pc a year earlier. Injection patterns vary as national storage mandates and supply portfolios influence filling strategies. Assuming that the summer stockbuild remains at the same deficit to last year in the coming month, storage in Poland is on track to reach capacity in early October, while Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Romania are projected to reach 80pc on average by 1 November, and 60pc in the Czech Republic. In contrast, Bulgaria and Croatia are on track to reach only 26pc. National storage obligations accelerated stockbuilding earlier this year in some CEE countries by setting mandatory deadlines. Hungarian and Slovak law require certain market participants to build storage reserves in domestic facilities. And the Czech Republic targets 60pc fill by 1 September and 90pc by 1 November. Poland's stockbuild rose by around 50 GWh/d on the year on 1 April–26 May, with Slovakia up by 42 GWh/d and Hungary by 18 GWh/d, partially offsetting earlier storage deficits (see injections graph ). Assuming this injection pace, storage in these countries could exceed last year's levels and stay above 80pc by 1 November. Stable supply portfolios have supported these gains, as the countries rely on long-term pipeline deals and offshore production. Hungary and Slovakia remain highly dependent on gas via Turkish Stream, while Poland's supply portfolio includes a substantial share of Norwegian gas. These flows tend to remain stable throughout the year, with interruptions mostly limited to scheduled maintenance. Prague on track to miss target The Czech Republic faces the highest risk of missing its target unless it sharply accelerates injections in the second half of the summer. Czech injections slowed by 58 GWh/d on the year on 1 April–25 May, and in Bulgaria by 20 GWh/d, which may increase reliance on imports later in summer. Bulgaria and Croatia also have limited storage compared with demand and rely heavily on LNG imports. The persistently weak stockbuild and low inventories in the Czech Republic could widen the year-on-year gap further. At the current trajectory, storage could hold at around 28TWh, or 60pc, by 1 November — well below the 90pc target. The Czech Republic is very dependent on LNG, leaving it exposed to global competition and cargo diversions to higher-priced markets. Czech state-controlled utility Cez has booked 3bn m³/yr of LNG capacity at the Dutch 8bn m³/yr Eemshaven terminal to the end of October 2027. This covers almost half the country's annual demand last year, showing its growing reliance on LNG. This setup may limit availability and increase both price volatility and supply risk despite secured regasification capacity. By Victoria Dovgal Net injections 2026 vs 2025 GWh/d CEE stocks dynamic TWh CEE stocks by country TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran-US deal draft contains Hormuz pledge: State TV
Iran-US deal draft contains Hormuz pledge: State TV
London, 27 May (Argus) — A draft agreement to end the war between the US and Iran includes a pledge from Tehran to return the number of commercial ships passing the strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, Iranian state television reported today. Crude futures fell sharply after the report, with front-month Ice Brent approaching $94/bl, the lowest intraday level since 21 April. Prices subsequently regained some ground, with Ice Brent down by around 4pc as of 13:45 GMT. Broadcaster IRIB said it had seen a "first draft" of a 14-point agreement that said "managing the passage of ships… and receiving fees for services remains at the discretion of [Iran], which will work in co-operation with Oman". In return, IRIB said the US has pledged to lift the maritime blockade on Iran, and has agreed to "make a commitment" on the issue of its military presence in countries neighbouring Iran. Details of the latter agreement are unclear. None of this has been confirmed by the governments in Tehran or Washington, although US president Donald Trump on 23 May said an agreement with Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated". Today's IRIB report contains no mention of agreement on other key issues, like Iran's nuclear programme, or on the repatriation of funds to Tehran. By Nader Itayim and Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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