Argus Chief Economist David Fyfe explores the global events impacting commodity markets. Through podcasts and blog posts, this series looks at the micro issues affecting one or more markets, and places them in a macro context. Listen or read to be kept informed of the latest developments.
Argus podcast episodes are available on a variety of podcast platforms as well as the Argus Blog, where each episode can be streamed and is provided with a full transcript and related links.
06 July 2021
Opec+ Ministers failed to agree a route forward for crude production on 5 July, leaving a market that arguably needs more barrels short-term, but then seeks tighter restraint once again from 2022.
Filter:Crude oil Global English Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America
16 June 2021
Supply chain bottlenecks, rising commodity prices and uneven progress in re-opening characterise today’s global markets, as vaccine success prompts hopes for more widespread economic recovery. But the spectre of a renewed inflationary spiral is clouding the outlook. Alt...
Filter:Agriculture Crude oil Fertilizer Natural gas/LNG Oil products Petrochemicals Freight & Transportation Global Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean North America
05 May 2021
In this edition of From the Economist's Chair, David Fyfe is joined by Conor Browne, an independent consultant specialising in biosecurity, to examine the Covid-19 pandemic's progress to date, and how policymakers might prepare for similar episodes in the future.
Filter:Global Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America Agriculture Bioenergy Coal Crude oil Emissions Fertilizer LPG/NGL Metals Natural gas/LNG Oil products Petrochemicals Power Freight & Transportation English
08 April 2021
Borrowing the nautical maxim that convoys sail at the speed of their slowest ships, a complete oil and commodity demand recovery requires more than just ongoing economic rebound in the US & China.
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18 March 2021
Four months after the US election, and despite expectations that an incoming Biden Administration would prioritise an early breakthrough, resuscitation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme more realistically looks like a late-202...
Filter:Crude oil Global Asia-Pacific Middle East North America English
03 March 2021
The Forth Bridge in Scotland was opened on the 4th of March 1890. Opec+ Ministers will hope their meeting on the same date 131 years later provides a bridge to both stronger oil demand and sustainably higher prices.
Filter:Crude oil Global English Africa FSU Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America
23 February 2021
Commodity prices have moved sharply higher since November amid disrupted supply, healthy Chinese import demand and vaccine successes, with imminent demand recovery and broader inflation concerns now stoking expectations of a commodity super-cycle. However, persistent ec...
Filter:Crude oil Metals Natural gas/LNG Global English Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East Latin America and Caribbean North America
17 December 2020
China’s imports of key commodities, totalling 2 billion tons and covering energy, agricultural products and metals, were up by a robust 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) during January-November 2020, with iron ore, soy, meat products and crude oil the strongest performers.
Filter:Asia-Pacific English Agriculture Coal Crude oil Fertilizer LPG/NGL Metals Natural gas/LNG Petrochemicals
10 December 2020
Sentiment may be shifting to the upside for a US shale sector that recently took a standing count, but is it premature to herald fledgling recovery for a sector battered by collapsing demand, slumping prices, capital starvation, bankruptcies and an incoming Biden Admini...
Filter:Crude oil Global North America English
17 November 2020
Events since early November have boosted equities, strengthened crude oil prices, placed a floor under the USD index and moderated some of the recent safe-haven demand for gold.
Filter:Crude oil Oil products Global English Africa Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America
02 November 2020
Intra-day crude volatility has doubled since early-September, on renewed uncertainty over Opec+ intentions, recovering Libyan production, weakening oil demand amid resurgent Covid-19 and, not least, a fractious US Presidential and Senate election campaign, which may see...
Filter:Crude oil North America English
26 October 2020
The annual autumn glut of energy outlooks shows disparate potential global oil demand levels by 2040, with Covid-19’s aftermath now augmenting energy transition pathways as a source of uncertainty.
Filter:Crude oil Global English Petrochemicals Freight & Transportation Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean North America
30 July 2020
The Covid-19 caseload is rising again and commodity markets have lost some of their earlier optimism, so a steady hand will be required to implement policies that help avoid another phase of blanket lock-down.
Filter:Crude oil Metals Global English Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America Fertilizer Natural gas/LNG
22 June 2020
As summer arrives and the world emerges from lock-down, hopes are high for gradual economic and oil demand recovery. Alongside reasonable levels of Opec+ discipline, this could help place a floor under crude prices. But whisper it quietly, a bleaker scenario also exists...
Filter:Crude oil Global English Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America
22 May 2020
US shale’s decline and recovery trajectory from 2014-2017 is unlikely to be replicated this time around. A different market backdrop, financial pressures and sector consolidation all point towards a “hockey stick” path, with a steep decline and shallower recovery likely...
Filter:Crude oil North America English
13 April 2020
Argus Media Chief Economist David Fyfe reviews last week's Opec+ and G20 meetings and the resulting, highly-anticipated crude oil production cut agreement.
Filter:Crude oil Global Africa Asia-Pacific Europe FSU Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America English
06 April 2020
British Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson said during the 1960s that “a week is a long time in politics”. If so, a month seems like an eternity for an oil market buffeted by coronavirus and the Opec+ fracturing that took place on 6 March in Vienna.
Filter:Crude oil Oil products Global English Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America
24 March 2020
Argus Chief Economist David Fyfe considers more broadly the changes this cruel coronavirus episode might force upon international commerce, global relations and the commodity markets.
Filter:Crude oil Oil products Global English Africa Asia-Pacific Europe FSU Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America Coal Fertilizer LPG/NGL Metals Natural gas/LNG Petrochemicals Freight & Transportation
12 March 2020
Riyadh may have decided the strategy of pursuing price, rather than market share, which served it well in the past, is now just too big a stretch.
Filter:Crude oil Global English
04 March 2020
Nailing jelly to the wall…continuously: Uncertain times call for exceptional measures. That’s what confronts Opec+ producers as they meet on 5 and 6 March in Vienna.
Filter:Crude oil Global English
21 February 2020
As the petroleum industry gathers in London for its annual IP Week jamboree, it seems assailed on several fronts along its planning horizon: economic downturn and coronavirus in the short-term; consolidation and slower supply growth from US shale in the medium-term; and...
Filter:Crude oil Oil products Global English
27 November 2019
Early indications suggest that Opec+ may simply extend their existing output deal beyond March 2020 when they meet on 5-6 December in Vienna. Broader commodity markets have shifted higher amid signs of an imminent stage-one US-China trade deal, and the IMO 2020 bunker r...
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07 August 2019
From the Economist's Chair: The geopolitics of crude - Trade disputes, sanctions and changing trade flows. Geopolitics remain pivotal in influencing crude prices and investor sentiment – to both the upside and downside.
Filter:Crude oil Global English Oil products Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America and Caribbean Middle East North America
12 July 2019
Welcome to the first in our blog post series from David Fyfe, Chief Economist at Argus Media. In this episode, Dr. Rouben Indjikian, lecturer in energy and commodities at Webster University Geneva speaks to David about the state and future of global energy.
Filter:Global Crude oil Oil products English Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East North America