Carbon markets
Overview
Carbon markets are developing as a crucial economic lever in the challenge of reversing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, while CO2 remains a key factor in a range of industrial sectors.
National governments are embracing carbon markets, with a proliferation of carbon pricing policies worldwide. The private sector is channelling finance into projects that generate carbon emissions reductions and removals to mitigate their hard-to-abate emissions.
And the United Nations is making progress in building a global marketplace for carbon emissions reductions that will facilitate nations’ attempts to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement.
Industrial sectors remain a key source of CO2 emissions and consumption, with innovation looking towards sustainable methods of production and utilisation.
Argus is setting the stage for an extended period of growth, evolution and interconnection of carbon market participants and initiatives.
Latest carbon markets news
Browse the latest market moving news on carbon markets.
Brazil soy demand for biodiesel may rise by 72pc
Brazil soy demand for biodiesel may rise by 72pc
Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Demand for soybeans used to produce biodiesel in Brazil may increase by 72pc to 74mn metric tonnes (t) by 2035 on the back of slated gains in the country's biodiesel blending mandate, according to the soybean and corn producers' association of Mato Grosso state, Aprosoja-MT. Aprosoja-MT forecasts Brazil's biodiesel output will rise to 18mn t in 2035 from 10mn t in 2026, in large part due to the planned increase of the biodiesel blending mandate in the fuel of the future law to 24pc by 2035 from the current 15pc. Considering soybean oil represents around 70pc of the feedstocks used for biodiesel production in Brazil, according to hydrocarbons regulator ANP, demand for soy oil in 2035 would reach 12.3mn t. That means it would be necessary to crush 74mn t of soybeans to produce around 12.3mn t of oil by 2035 from 7.2mn t in 2025. Aprosoja-MT estimates Brazil's consumption of diesel, including biodiesel, of 1.4mn b/d in the 2026-35 period. In 2025, Brazil consumed an average 1.2mn b/d of diesel. The fuel of the future law establishes targets for the increase in biofuels blending in Brazil. It sets that the biodiesel blending mandate should grow by 1 percentage point/yr until 2030, which could be extended until 2035. But the increase of the blending mandate to 15pc from 14pc was delayed by six months in 2025, and the increase to 16pc — scheduled for March 2026 — has not been implemented yet because the government is still running the necessary feasibility tests . According to mines and energy ministry MME, the final report covering blends of 16-20pc is expected to be approved by late March 2027 if tests confirm these levels are feasible. That means the increase of the blending mandate to 16pc will have to wait at least until April 2027. Brazil's biodiesel demand is expected to reach 365,000 b/d in 2035, according to the association of vegetable oil industries Abiove. That would be more than double from 170,000 b/d in 2025, which reflected a 14.2pc average blending rate, according to ANP. Brazil's industrial sector would have to invest R52.2bn ($10.4bn) in new soybean crushers and biodiesel plants to be able to meet that demand, according to Abiove. By João Marinho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rotterdam 1Q bunker sales fall sharply
Rotterdam 1Q bunker sales fall sharply
London, 16 April (Argus) — Demand for conventional marine fuels in Rotterdam fell by 28pc on the year in the first quarter of 2026, after the Netherlands implemented the EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) at its ports. The decline also reflects disruption linked to the US-Iran war. Market participants reported a drop in Rotterdam bunker demand even before the war, as some shipowners shifted fuelling to neighbouring ports to avoid price premiums created by the Netherlands' unilateral transposition of RED III marine mandates from 1 January. Sales of very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) fell most sharply, down by 44pc from a year earlier to about 440,000t in the first quarter. High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) volumes dropped by 25pc to about 619,000t, while ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) sales fell by 13pc. Marine gasoil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO) demand declined by 8pc on the year to around 361,000t. Some shipowners instead opted to bunker in neighbouring Antwerp, which forms part of the ARA hub and offers lower conventional bunker prices without requiring route changes. Others prioritised bunkering at Gothenburg in Sweden or ports in Germany, market participants said. Price differentials supported the shift. Between early February and the end of March, MGO dob Rotterdam prices averaged $12.75/t higher than the Antwerp equivalent, while VLSFO dob Rotterdam held an average premium of roughly $14.50/t over the same period. Tighter global supply has added further pressure. The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz sharply reduced bunker availability in Singapore, increasing competition for VLSFO and MGO cargoes that would otherwise be exported to the ARA hub. After the start of the US-Iran war, Rotterdam MGO prices rose by 75pc to an average of about $1,186/t in March, while VLSFO prices climbed by 57pc to an average of $710.50/t. By Gabriel Tassi Lara and Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Rotterdam biomarine sales fall in 1Q
Rotterdam biomarine sales fall in 1Q
London, 16 April (Argus) — Marine biodiesel blend sales fell by 35pc in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of last year, but were roughly steady compared with the first quarter of 2025. Participants pointed to lacklustre demand in January and February, with an uptick in March as the US-Iran war led to Dutch B100 flipping to a discount against MGO . But these discounts failed to support significant demand growth , as volatility weighed on marine fuel trading activity and buyers hesitant to make significant changes to their procurement strategy based on an acute price spread. Rotterdam's loss has been Singapore's gain. Data from the Port of Singapore showed roughly a 13pc growth in marine biodiesel blend sales on the quarter to the first quarter of 2026. This demand is attributed to FuelEU Maritime requirements, which came into effect in 2025 and require ships coming in, out of, and operating within EU waters to reduce emissions. Shipowners bunkering marine biodiesel in Singapore for EU-bound voyages can use it for FuelEU Maritime compliance. And compliance generated from bunkering marine biodiesel in Singapore can then be used to achieve compliance on vessels operating European routes, via the pooling mechanism, in which obligated companies can combine their compliance balance with other vessels. Bio-LNG sales firmed by 28pc on the quarter in the first quarter of 2026, generating over-compliance which has sold at a significant premium to cost . This may have also weighed on marine biodiesel blend sales, as bio-LNG volumes bunkered would have generated FuelEU compliance surpluses that can then be sold on to vessels that do not have LNG-capable engines. This would then potentially dampen FuelEU-driven demand from those vessels for marine biodiesel blends, and many shipowners did opt to buy surpluses to meet FuelEU requirements. But this dynamic may soon change because of the US-Iran war, where the FuelEU used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome)–MGO abatement ex-emissions trading system (ETS) price was negative on 7 April. It has since returned to positive levels, marked at €61.45/tCO2e on 15 April. But this remains significantly below FuelEU compliance surplus levels, with offers seen at €175-210/tCO2e, meaning it is currently cheaper to generate compliance using marine biodiesel blends than to buy surpluses to meet the FuelEU requirements. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Rotterdam bunker sales t Fuel 1Q 2026 4Q 2025 Q1 2025 q-o-q % y-o-y % ULSFO 162,142 219,039 187,031 -26 -13 VLSFO 439,804 745,786 789,218 -41 -44 HSFO 619,010 804,962 829,197 -23 -25 MGO/MDO 360,517 402,781 393,071 -10 -8 Conventional total 1,581,473 2,172,568 2,198,517 -27 -28 Biofuel blends 104,630 161,934 104,037 -35 1 LNG (m3) 267,454 192,433 261,200 39 2 Bio-LNG (m3) 15,260 11,932 na 28 na Biomethanol 996 na 5,490 na -82 Port of Rotterdam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Climate change left unaddressed will cut incomes: Study
Climate change left unaddressed will cut incomes: Study
London, 16 April (Argus) — Climate change could by 2050 "reduce income for the average person" by between 3pc and 15pc, measured in terms of GDP per capita, researchers at the London School of Economics' Grantham Institute on Climate Change and Environment found. It is based on a "plausible worst case scenario" in which global temperatures rise by between 2.2-2.8°C above pre-industrial levels and assumes no further increase in adaptation — adjusting to the effects of climate change — the report said. Without much larger reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the impacts are likely to "intensify or even accelerate" in the second half of this century, it added. "People in low- and lower-middle-income countries are expected to be disproportionately affected by climate impacts", facing average losses of 8-18pc of GDP per capita, the report found. But "early and strategic adaptation investments can bolster economic stability, reduce debt levels and borrowing costs", it added. GDP per capita would stabilise by mid-century in a scenario aligned with the upper limit of the Paris climate agreement, according to the researchers. The Paris agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above the pre-industrial average and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. The world is projected to warm by around 3°C by the end of the century based on current pledges. The studies informing Grantham Institute estimates "are not comprehensive" and are "likely to be significant underestimates of the potential consequences", the report warned. They exclude some impacts from flooding and severe storms, as well as effects that are challenging to estimate, such as tipping points. Early investment in adaptation would "bolster fiscal stability" by reducing the spending needed on losses from climate change, the report found. It combines findings from nearly 300 studies. Several studies have found the cost of inaction on climate change substantially outweighs the alternative. Finance for cutting GHG emissions and adaptation is usually a central topic in multilateral climate talks such as UN Cop summits. Countries reached a new climate finance deal at Cop 29, in November 2024, whereby developed nations agreed to deliver $300bn/yr to developing countries by 2035. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Spotlight carbon content
Browse the latest carbon insight produced by our global team of carbon experts
