Camila Fontana: Brazil and the world are getting ready for the UN’s COP30, an annual global event where decisions are made to tackle the climate crisis. This year, it will be held in Belém, in northern Brazil, from November 10th-21st. And as a host, Brazil is positioning itself as a leader in the climate agenda, but its growing ambitions in the oil sector are raising questions. Can it strike a balance between the two?
I’m Camila Fontana, deputy bureau chief of Argus in Brazil, and today I’ll be discussing this topic with Lucas Parolin, our news editor here in Brazil. Lucas, along with other journalists, will be covering COP30 on the ground and has been closely following the developments behind this major event. Welcome, Lucas.
Lucas Parolin: Thanks, Camila. It’s a pleasure to be here. Indeed, we’re getting ready for a very busy conference in Belém.
Camila: Let’s start with the big picture, then. Brazil is using the global stocktake agreement from COP28 as a kind of anchor for COP30. So, what’s the significance of that?
Lucas: Camila, the global stocktake — or GST — is a collective assessment of how countries are progressing towards the Paris Agreement goals. Brazil’s COP30 presidency is reframing it as a “globally determined contribution”, which shifts the focus from individual climate plans to shared ambition. It’s a strategic move to elevate the summit’s importance and Brazil’s role in it.
Camila: President Lula has been vocal on climate since his term began in 2023 —with reforestation, energy transition, climate finance. Hosting COP30 in Belém seems to be the next step in that narrative.
Lucas: Exactly. Lula has been trying to position Brazil as a bridge between developed and developing nations. The decision to host COP30 hinged on that, and so the goals set forth in the G20 leaders’ summit, held in Rio de Janeiro last year. The choice to host COP30 in Belém, in the heart of the Amazon, was symbolic. It highlights Brazil’s environmental challenges and its potential to lead the fight against climate change.
Camila: But Brazil won’t rely exclusively on official negotiations at COP30, right? There’s something called the Action Agenda. What’s that about?
Lucas: Camila, it’s Brazil’s way of advancing GST goals outside the formal UN framework. The Action Agenda is a six-pronged, 30-goal plan aimed at mobilizing coalitions from previous summits and pushing progress on energy efficiency, low-emission technologies and universal energy access. It’s a way to keep momentum going, even if formal talks stall.
The truth is, COP29, in Baku, didn’t deliver much. And while COP28’s call to move away from fossil fuels was historic, it lacked concrete plans.
So COP30 has a lot to prove, and so does Brazil. A lack of concrete results at COP30 can undermine Brazil’s climate leadership narrative.
Camila: Seems like there’s a lot at stake for Brazil. But there are some contradictions to the country’s speech, aren’t there?
Lucas: Indeed. Especially its crude production goals. I call it “Brazil’s oily skeleton in the closet”.
Brazil has been setting crude output records month after month. It produced 5mn b/d of oil equivalent for the first time ever in July, with crude representing almost 4mn b/d of that total, according to hydrocarbons regulator ANP. The goal, according to energy research firm EPE, is to reach 5mn b/d of oil, only, by 2030.
That’s a tough sell for a country claiming climate leadership. Critics argue that this is incompatible with the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. A climate expert I spoke with recently said that Brazil has one of the most aggressive fossil fuel expansion plans in the world, which she said was absurd.
Camila: But can Brazil afford to not increase oil production?
Lucas: Not really. Lula says that oil revenue will fund the country’s energy transition. He also argues that continued oil production is justified because of Brazil’s developing country status, the importance of the oil and gas industry to its economy, and the comparatively low level of its fossil fuel emissions.
And Brazil is sitting on a gold mine: the Equatorial Margin, an environmentally sensitive area that may have 6bn bl of recoverable reserves and, ironically, sits really close to Belém.
Camila: But there are some environmental wins to taunt, right?
Lucas: Oh yeah, there sure are. 80pc of Brazil’s electricity comes from renewables, for instance. It also recently increased [biofuels] blending mandates into diesel and gasoline. And it is true that the government has been investing in ending deforestation by 2030, although with some mixed results.
But all that can’t get around the fact that continued oil exploration sends mixed signals. Both the UN and the International Energy Agency have warned that new oil projects threaten climate goals. Plain and simple.
Camila: So what does Brazil stand to gain from being a climate leader?
Lucas: That, Camila, is the billion-dollar question, literally. Brazil is eyeing foreign investments. It wants to prove to the world that it is this great beacon against climate change and, therefore, that the world can spend its coin here to both help the cause and receive investments in return. That’s the endgame.
For example, last year, at the G20, Brazil embraced the idea that countries that managed to create global platforms against climate change would have access to better financing.
Camila: And Brazil also says that developed countries should lead the fossil fuel transition. So Brazil’s stance is: we’ll contribute, but we won’t go first.
Lucas: Exactly. It’s a nuanced position. Brazil wants to lead, but on its own terms and especially without compromising its economic development.
Camila: That is interesting. But let’s talk about Belém and its logistics. The city isn’t the easiest place to host a global summit.
Lucas: Far from it, Camila. Belém’s logistics are certainly a challenge for COP30. As I said before, the choice of Belém is both symbolic and political. It’s meant to show Brazil’s development status and the urgency of protecting the Amazon. COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago has emphasized that message.
But it was clear from the beginning that the city would struggle to host all 45,000+ attendees. Lodging prices soared ten- and sometimes elevenfold, turning people away.
So far, only about 80 countries out of around 200 have confirmed attendance at COP30. Even the UN has admitted it will decrease the number of delegates it sends to the summit. Some private participants are already turning to other events in other cities in Brazil – namely Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro – instead of facing the lodging crisis.
The matter is quite simple: without delegations there, COP30 won’t deliver the desirable results.
Camila: Sounds like quite a challenge. We’re coming to the end of our talk. So Lucas, as we look ahead to COP30, what should listeners watch for?
Lucas: Three things: whether Brazil can turn the GST into real action, how it reconciles oil expansion with climate credibility, and whether it can rally global support to make Belém a success. We’ll be there on the ground covering it all, so stay tuned to Argus for the latest.
Camila: Thanks, Lucas. Looking forward to your coverage.
Thank you to our listeners. Argus follows closely commodity market developments in Brazil and around the world. Check out more episodes of our podcast on major platforms or at
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