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US-Iran war sends FuelEU abatement price negative
US-Iran war sends FuelEU abatement price negative
London, 8 April (Argus) — The FuelEU used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome)–marine gasoil (MGO) abatement ex-emissions trading system (ETS) price was negative on 7 April, underscoring how the US-Iran war has distorted marine fuel economics by driving fossil fuel prices sharply higher. The abatement price — which reflects the cost of meeting FuelEU requirements by using biodiesel instead of conventional MGO — fell below zero on 2 April for the first time since the assessment began at the start of 2025. It has remained negative since then, standing at -€23.46/t CO2 equivalent (CO2e) on 7 April. It follows a sharp rally in oil markets triggered by the conflict. The front-month Ice gasoil futures contract reached an all-time high of $1,569.75/t on 2 April, lifting MGO values and narrowing the cost gap between fossil fuels and biofuels. As a result, the typical "green premium" associated with biodiesel use was eroded. FuelEU Maritime regulations, which entered into force in 2025, require vessels operating in EU waters to cut greenhouse gas intensity by 2pc. The negative abatement price indicates that, at current values, using Ucome-based marine fuel is cheaper than using MGO on a compliance-adjusted basis. The shift follows an earlier distortion seen during the conflict, when B100 advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) delivered into the Netherlands moved to a discount to MGO delivered into the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub once ETS costs were included. In parallel, traded FuelEU compliance surpluses for 2026 were reported at around €185/tCO2e on 8 April. This means it is currently cheaper to generate compliance using marine biodiesel blends than to buy surpluses to meet the FuelEU requirements. This is in stark contrast to last year, when shipowners largely opted to purchase overcompliance instead of using biodiesel — mainly due to cheaper compliance generated via manure-based bio-LNG . Despite these shifts, physical demand for marine biodiesel has yet to rise meaningfully. Market participants have reported limited increases in buying, but overall demand remains subdued even where biodiesel blends now offer a lower compliance-adjusted cost. This may be because of ongoing price volatility and uncertainty about the direction of the US-Iran war, which is keeping many shipowners focused on securing fossil fuel supplies for their vessels for the coming weeks. Another reason could be a lack of availability of marine biodiesel blends at smaller ports, and concerns from shipowners about engine compatibility for pure biodiesel. Demand for FuelEU compliance surpluses for 2026 has also softened, with plenty of offers but no bids. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Delta expects fuel costs to double in 2Q
Delta expects fuel costs to double in 2Q
Houston, 8 April (Argus) — Delta Air Lines expects its jet fuel costs to roughly double in the second quarter as the conflict in the Middle East continues to restrict supply. The company expects an all-in fuel price of $4.30/USG during the second quarter, following an adjusted fuel price of $2.62/USG in the first quarter, Delta said this morning in its quarterly earnings call. The first quarter fuel cost reflects a 7-8pc increase compared to the same period last year. The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire starting late Tuesday, but so far there are few signs that the flow of tankers through the strait of Hormuz has picked up significantly. The US Energy Information Administration yesterday increased its jet fuel price outlook to $4.22/USG during the second quarter, compared with just $2.74/USG during the first quarter. That estimate assumed a full resumption in tanker traffic through the strait by the end of April. The Argus US jet fuel index averaged $2.89/USG during the first quarter, up by 65¢/USG, or 29pc, compared to the same period of 2025. The index — an average of spot prices across the US — sits at roughly $4.80/bl, having risen by $2.30/USG since the conflict started with Iran on 28 February. By Amanda Hilow Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shipowners await clarity on Hormuz after ceasefire
Shipowners await clarity on Hormuz after ceasefire
London, 8 April (Argus) — Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz has yet to rise since the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire , as shipowners wait for clarity on security arrangements and insurance cover for transits. US president Donald Trump said the ceasefire depends on free transit through Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil flows. But AIS data do not yet show a surge in transits. Trump agreed to the two-week ceasefire with Iran on 7 April, subject to what he described as the "complete, immediate and safe opening" of the strait of Hormuz. Iran's supreme national security council confirmed the ceasefire but said the proposal under discussion would enshrine "continued Iranian control over the strait", according to Iran's Tasnim news agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). A small number of vessel movements via the strait have emerged since the announcement, including the Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth and the Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach , according to vessel tracking firm MarineTraffic. But overall traffic has remained limited. The ceasefire could allow commercial shipping flows to recover after weeks of minimal traffic caused by security risks and insurance restrictions during fighting between the US, Israel and Iran. The fact that transits have not accelerated yet reflects uncertainty over technical, security and insurance details. "The shipping industry is currently awaiting technical details from the US and from Iran on how to transit the strait of Hormuz safely," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association Bimco. He noted that Iran continues to seek control over the waterway. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) welcomes the ceasefire and is "working with the relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the strait of Hormuz", secretary-general Arsenio Dominguez said. Maritime security firm Ambrey said Iran has maintained control over the strait, despite US demands for unrestricted passage. It expects the risk to shipping in the Mideast Gulf to ease while the ceasefire is in place, but warned there remains "a realistic possibility of continued risk to unauthorised strait of Hormuz transits, as well as to Israel- and US-affiliated shipping attempting to transit". Market participants said crude cargo numbers in the Mideast Gulf appear to be rising, but added that activity remains tentative until insurers spell out cover terms and protocols. By Leonard Fisher-Matthews Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US-Iran ceasefire weighs on European oil product prices
US-Iran ceasefire weighs on European oil product prices
London, 8 April (Argus) — European middle distillate and gasoline prices have dropped on Wednesday, 8 April, after the US and Iran agreed overnight to a two-week ceasefire that could see oil flow resume through the strait of Hormuz, but prices remain well above pre-war levels. Front-month Ice April gasoil futures dropped by 18.3pc to $1,247.75/t at 10:30 BST (09:30 GMT). The contract serves as the underlying price against which European diesel and jet cargoes and barges trade. Benchmark non-oxy gasoline barges were trading at $945.50/t at the same time, down by 9.9pc from the close on 7 April. Front-month Ice gasoil futures and benchmark non-oxy gasoline barges prices were still higher than pre-war levels of $752.75/t and $690/t on 27 February, respectively. The drop in European oil product prices has followed a sharp decline in front-month Ice Brent futures values, which fell 15.1pc since 7 April to trade at $94.04/bl at 10:30 BST. European middle distillate values have fallen more steeply than gasoline on the ceasefire news, given that the continent is a net importer of the former and a net exporter of the latter. Diesel and jet arrivals from the Mideast Gulf respectively made up around a fifth and half of total EU, UK and Norwegian imports last year, according to Kpler. The US and Iran said on 7 April that they would halt hostilities for a two-week period to finalise a peace deal. But their public statements differ on the status of navigation through the strait of Hormuz and uncertainty regarding vessel transit remains. The effective closure of the strait of Hormuz since the US-Israel war against Iran began on 28 February has weighed on loadings of diesel and jet from the Mideast Gulf over March. Arrivals are expected to ease this month, reflecting lower March cargo bookings from the Mideast Gulf that would typically now be starting to reach European ports. The drop in Ice gasoil futures is unlikely to translate into a rise in distillate bookings from the Mideast Gulf to European ports for now. The east-west gasoil paper spread remains at a discount, meaning that Europe would still struggle to compete for available volumes from the Mideast Gulf and India. The spread between Ice gasoil and Singapore gasoil swaps has narrowed somewhat on the session to a discount of around $150/t, according to one trader, down from around $210/t. The US remains a more likely source for European diesel imports, one European diesel trader told Argus , given that the spread between US Gulf coast and northwest European diesel values is much narrower. Europe's gasoline values have also risen since the war began, even though the region is a net exporter of the fuel. This is because of tighter east of Suez availability of crude and naphtha and condensates from the Mideast Gulf. Traders have booked numerous cargoes to ship European gasoline and gasoline blending feedstock naphtha to destinations east of Suez since the war broke out, likely bidding up European gasoline values to secure fixtures for destinations in Asia-Pacific. The ceasefire announcement has had little effect so far on the current structure in the European distillate and gasoline markets. The Ice gasoil futures structure remained in steep backwardation, with front-month at a $110.75/t premium to the second-month contract at 10:30 BST, compared with a $9.75/t spread on 27 February. The Eurobob oxy gasoline swap curve was showing front-month May swaps at a premium of $29.25/t over second-month June swaps Wednesday morning. The Eurobob oxy gasoline structure is typically in contango at this time of year as traders price in greater demand and blending costs from May onwards. By George Maher-Bonnett and Josh Michalowski Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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